Get ready for an exciting Mountain West Conference matchup tonight when the Fresno State Bulldogs meet the Nevada Wolf Pack. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 PM ET under the bright lights of Reno’s historic Mackey Stadium, and the game will be broadcast on CBSSN.

These two groups go after it offensively whenever they meet, and my predictions between Fresno State and Nevada expect this trend to continue.

Read on as I explain why I like the Over with free college football picks for Friday, October 18.

Fresno State vs Nevada prediction and best bet

My best choice
Over 50.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Nothing says football more than a Friday night in October, and this Mountain West football game should provide plenty of excitement.

The Fresno State Bulldogs come here looking for a win. They have dropped two games in a row, including a 59-14 loss at UNLV a fortnight ago.

Fresno State’s rushing defense leaves a lot to be desired. They allow an average of 4.5 yards per carry. Last week the Bulldogs allowed Washington State for 123 yards on the ground and 252 rushing yards at UNLV 14 days ago.

The Bulldogs’ stopping unit will be in trouble this week.

Nevada Wolf Pack quarterback Brendon Lewis and his backfield average 5.15 yards per carry and 215 rushing yards per game. Lewis ran for 157 yards and a TD against Oregon State. He only threw 53 yards, but this kid can hurl it when he needs to.

Lewis has more than 1,100 passing yards with nine scoring touches and five picks. If Lewis wasn’t enough trouble, there is more; the Wolfpack backfield features three 200+ yard rushers and three wideouts with 200+ receiving yards.

Nevada will move the chains with their feet offensively, but their defense will struggle to contain Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene. That Wolf Pack D unit picked off four passes against Washington State last week but has otherwise been mediocre against the pass this season, which Keene will pick apart.

Keene has thrown for 1,576 passing yards with as many scoring strikes as interceptions (8) in addition to a trio of receivers with over 300 receiving yards. Keene’s aerial attack should have a field day against a Nevada defense that surrendered 254 yards through the air and 10 TD receptions.

That’s why I’m playing the Over in this one.

The defense will compete against the respective O units. Neither consistently holds anyone back. Both offenses will move the chains and score points, while the defense will struggle to prevent what each offense does best. These two groups have exceeded the total in four of their previous five meetings and should do so again Friday evening.

Fresno State vs. Nevada same-game parlay (SGP)

More than 50.5

Savion Red any time touchdown

Mac Dalena can land at any time

I like Savion Red and Bulldogs running back Mac Dalena in Nevada to find the end zone to push this total over the number.

Red scored four touchdowns against Oregon State last week. He also leads the team in rushing TDs (7) and yards (523). He will see that his number is being called frequently and that should work. Six of Fresno State’s rushing TDs allowed have come in the red zone, and I expect Nevada to score at least one.

Dalena leads Fresno State in TDs (4). He’s Keene’s main target, and Dalena delivers. The Wolf Pack has given up 10 scoring attacks, four of which came in the Red Zone. I expect Keene to target Dalena frequently and the senior wideout finds the end zone at least once.

Learn how to parlay on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Fresno State vs Nevada odds

Fresno State vs Nevada live odds

Fresno State vs. Nevada Opening Odds

• Fresno State vs. Nevada spread: Nevada +3.5
• Fresno State vs. Nevada Moneyline: Fresno State -160, Nevada +130
• Fresno State vs. Nevada Top/Bottom: 51.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Fresno State vs. Nevada spread and over/under analysis

• Fresno State is 3-3-0 ATS. BetMGM opened the Bulldogs at -3.5 (-110), but that number has dropped to -3 (-105).
• Nevada opened as a +3.5 (-110) underdog at home. The Wolf Pack are 4-2-0 ATS and have covered this number in their last three ballgames.
• The over/under numbers are down from BetMGM’s 51.5 (-110) opener.
• Fresno State is 3-3-0 in the Over, while Nevada’s games have ended in the No. in four of their last six overs.

Fresno State vs. Nevada betting trend to know

Nevada has reached Game Total Over in eight of its last thirteen games (+2.50 units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting odds for Fresno State vs. Nevada.

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