In our eternal mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack an opponent’s defense is, in my humble opinion, a good place to start.

We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for passing funnels: defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (usually meaning when the game is within seven points anyway).

Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end goal for how you determine your weekly fantasy play. It’s just another data point in your brain-wracking decision-making about who to play and who to bench.

Report funnel matchups

Panthers vs. Bucs

While covering the Panthers-Chiefs game last Sunday, I almost felt sorry for all the disparaging comments I’d made toward Bryce Young over the past year and a half. The man who in no way looked like a viable NFL quarterback took apart a solid if unspectacular Kansas City coverage unit with anticipatory throws, strong throws into tight windows and audibles on the line of scrimmage as the defenders of the Chiefs threatened all-out blitzes.

Young, coming off Carolina’s bye, was a brand new quarterback. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Young’s performance in Week 12 – 263 yards and one touchdown, 3.5 percent above his expected completion percentage – was a career changer. It was perhaps the best development for the Panthers in a decade.

Carolina was 7 percent above expected success rate in their close loss to the mock-elite Chiefs, the highest mark of their 2024 season. And Young’s 8.8 air yards per attempt were higher than his career average of 7.6. It’s all going very well for Young and his pass catchers.

Now Young and the Panthers get a matchup against the league’s second most extreme pass funnel defense. 2024 Bucs opponents have exceeded their expected success rate in eight of 11 games, and no team has faced a higher neutral success rate. Teams have targeted the Tampa secondary for good reason: Only the Patriots and Bills are allowing a higher-than-expected completion percentage and only three teams are giving up a higher EPA. In a game where the Vegas total has risen from 44 to 46.5 points in recent days, Panthers-Bucs could even have shootout potential, or something close to that. It makes Young a sneaky superflex option.

Journeyman WR David Moore was somehow Carolina’s biggest goal earner in Week 12. He caught 10 looks from Young and caught the team’s only passing score (and should have had another). Moore, who ran a full complement of passing routes against the Chiefs, could be interesting this week if Jalen Coker (quad) stays out.

It was Xavier Legette and Moore who operated in two wideout sets for Carolina last week, while Adam Thielen joined as the team’s primary punter. The problem for Thielen: The Panthers used three-receiver sets on just 70 percent of their offensive snaps. It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly which Carolina pass catchers would benefit from a pass-heavy Week 13 approach. Thielene, Moore and Legette could see surprise statements against Tampa. Tommy Tremble, meanwhile, will be the team’s TE1, with Ja’Tavion Sanders (neck) sidelined. The fact that Tremble has seen a target on 11 percent of his routes this season doesn’t inspire much confidence.

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Commanders vs. Titans

Washington, as we’ve seen on this issue, wants to have the ball in its hands more than any team since the 1949 Bears. Reports say Arthur Smith believes commanders’ commitment to the run is “a bit much” .

Kliff Kingsbury may be forced to throw the ball a little more than usual in Week 13 against a Titans defense that has gradually become one of the NFL’s most pronounced passing funnels. Only four defenses rank as more extreme passing funnels through Week 12; Four of the past five teams that played the Titans exceeded their expected success rate.

We have seen Kliff commanders leaning against other pass judges at the pass. In Week 6 against the Ravens, Jayden Daniels had 35 pass attempts as Washington was nearly 8 percent above expected success rate. A few weeks later, Daniels had a season-high 38 attempts against the Bears, with the Commanders going 10 percent above their expected success rate.

Possibly without Brian Robinson (knee) and facing a Tennessee defense that allows the NFL’s fourth-lowest success rate, we should get another 30-plus attempts from Daniels – barring, of course, some funky game script (always a possibility with Will Levis on the other side of the ball).

This likely translates into what the zoomers call a “giga smash spot” for Terry McLaurin. It also puts Zach Ertz, the last great millennial NFL player, firmly in play as a 12-team starter. Noah Brown, who had a team-leading 10 goals against Dallas last week, should be a viable flex option in deeper formats against the pass-funnel Titans.

Run funnel matchups

Saints vs. Rams

I have to admit, the Rams have snuck up on me as a reliable run funnel. Sean Mcvay’s defense is now the fifth most extreme range in the league – a trend I wouldn’t have predicted with the Rams secondary being so accessible.

Five of the past six teams that played in LA were below their expected success rate (PROE). That includes the Ravens in Week 12, who had a -14 percent PROE against the Rams, their second toughest game of the season. Teams are attacking a Rams defense that has the NFL’s fifth-highest rush yards before contact since Week 6.

That should continue in week 13. And the main beneficiaries are obvious: Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, who combined for 35 touches the last time the Saints played. The New Orleans offense has passed the ball at a low 52 percent rate in the neutral game script since Derek Carr’s return to the lineup in Week 9. If that continues, with the Saints listed as 1.5-point underdogs, Hill could and Kamara must be in for a heavy workload.

Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi dealt a blow to the few remaining Taysom doubters on Tuesday, saying Hill will continue to be a “big part of what we do” and that his use from weeks 10-11 would continue until morale improves improves. . He is a must-start in 12-team formats against the run-funnel Rams.

Colts vs. Patriots

Jonathan Taylor’s framers mutter under their breath, in public spaces no less, about the process. Taylor’s 56 rushes from Weeks 9-12 rank third among all running backs; his 206 rushing yards rank eighth-best, and he doesn’t have a single touchdown to show for it.

Taylor continues to dominate the backfield in a Colts offense with the fourth-lowest success rate above expected. Ultimately, that will pay off, and it could be as early as Week 13 against a New England defense where teams are running the ball fourth in neutral game script this season.

The Colts, with a 53 percent success rate in neutral situations since Week 9, should face a tough match against the Pats unless things go sideways for Anthony Richardson and company. New England’s defense has been fairly stingy in terms of yards before contact this year, even though they are allowing the fifth-most yards after contact per rush. It’s undeniably a good spot for Taylor, who should stay in all lineups.

Bills vs. 49ers

The Niners march east to have their collective butts handed to them by a red-hot Bills team that’s taking no prisoners at this point. Buffalo, who comes in as an 8.5-point favorite, will likely lean hard on the run against San Francisco, the league’s second-most pronounced run funnel defense.

It’s a nice rebound for James Cook after he was held to 20 yards on nine rushing attempts in Week 11 against Kansas City. Maybe you didn’t notice since he scored two touchdowns and got away with it. Cook should have volume on his side against a Niners defense that has seen eight of its 11 opponents go below their expected success rate in 2024.

A run-first script for Buffalo would obviously limit the pass volume that has fueled recent (relatively) big performances from Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Be careful how you deploy Buffalo pass-catchers against a 49ers defense that has seen the 10th fewest pass attempts per game.