The 2024 WNBA season has been one for the books, and it ends Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a winner-take-all at Barclays Center between the No. 1 seed New York Liberty and the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx.

Home teams are always 5-2 in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals.

The Liberty could have won their first championship in franchise history on Friday, but the Lynx held on. New York, the league’s only remaining original franchise without a title, has lost all five previous times it has played for the championship.

Minnesota can win a record fifth WNBA with a win on Sunday. Cheryl Reeve has a 2-1 record in Finals Game 5s as head coach.

What can we expect in Game 5? ESPN breaks down the X-factors and predicts which team will be crowned champions.

Is this the best WNBA Finals in the league’s history?

Michael Voepel: There’s usually a recency bias with these types of questions because what we’ve seen in the past week is so current.

That said, there is something to be said for this series. The time has come, and three of the four games have been decided by three points or less. And the other — New York’s 80-66 victory in Game 2 — was a two-point play with less than four minutes remaining. There’s often at least one blind match, even in a really good championship series, but that didn’t happen.

We’ve seen a little bit of everything:

Game 1, Lynx win: An 18-point comeback, a four-point play to take the lead in the final five seconds by Courtney Williams, and overtime. Game 3, Liberty victory: Sabrina Ionescu’s 28-foot 3-pointer with one second left. Game 4, Lynx win: Bridget Carleton’s two game-winning free throws with two seconds left. This match was also the most exciting of the entire match, with 14 lead changes and 13 ties.

Sunday will be Reeve’s sixth Finals Game 5 (including her time with the Detroit Shock as an assistant coach), so she’s well-positioned to make comparisons. She said the Minnesota-Los Angeles Sparks Finals in 2016 and 2017, both of which lasted five games, are notable because multiple future Hall of Famers played for both teams.

Two games in the 2016 finals ended with last-second shots, both won by the Sparks. The first two games of the 2017 finals were decided by one and two points, the next three by 11, 11 and 9 points.

The 2024 WNBA Finals were ____.

Charlie Cream: Heartbreaking. All four games were close late. In terms of pure viewing pleasure, few series in basketball history have been better.

Alexa Philippou: Pleasing. In a season that welcomed many new fans and viewers thanks to its sensational rookie class, it is a treat that these two teams – historic and special in their own ways – put together a series of such a high standard. It’s the latest reminder of how good the players, coaching and basketball have been in the WNBA, long before the sudden surge in cultural relevance.

Voepel: Unbearable for Liberty fans. Some New York faithful go all the way back to 1997. They have stayed the course despite many postseason disappointments. It felt like this was “their year,” especially when they defeated the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals. But the Lynx are making the Liberty work as hard as they can. Some New York fans will watch Game 5 like it’s a horror movie that could go horribly wrong. That’s the price of old fandom.

Who or what will be the X-factor in Game 5?

Filippou: The health and effectiveness of Alanna Smith, who is working through an issue that (along with foul trouble) sidelined her for much of Game 3. She finished with 12 points and 7 boards in 30 minutes in Game 4, a good sign for the Lynx, who also got solid minutes from Dorka Juhasz. Coming off a run and a quick turnaround after Friday’s game, whether Smith can continue to compete against Jonquel Jones will be a big factor for Minnesota.

And as obvious as it sounds, this game could come down to which team makes fewer mistakes over time and which team comes to the fore. Late fouls, free throw efficiency and big three-pointers influenced the outcome of three of the four finals matches. When the final minute or seconds arrive on Sunday, late-game execution will decide which team will be crowned champions.

Cream: On duty. I don’t think Friday’s game was unfairly officiated, as Sandy Brondello said in Friday’s post-game press conference, but now both coaches have addressed attitudes toward the officials. What Game 5 is called will be something to keep an eye on. After Game 3, Minnesota’s Reeve complained that Napheesa Collier was getting more attention from the officials than Breanna Stewart. In Game 4, Stewart was the superstar in foul trouble. Did Reeve’s words have any impact? We’ll never know, but now that Brondello has publicly expressed her displeasure with the whistles after a game in which her team attempted 11 fewer free throws, it will be interesting to see what the foul and free throw numbers look like on Sunday.

Voepel: It feels like there’s more pressure on the Liberty for obvious reasons as they pursue their first championship. How well they defend against the tip can set the tone in this game. How well Breanna Stewart plays offensively is the other big one. As we saw in Game 3, she can completely take over. But as we saw in Game 4, she can also struggle with her shooting accuracy.

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Can the Liberty win the title if Stewart and Ionescu shoot like they did on Friday?

Voepel: In Game 4, you could tell that Stewart and Napheesa Collier were feeling the grind of battling each other for over a week. Collier was 4 of 10 from the field and Stewart 5 of 21. But with everything on the line, it’s likely we’ll see strong performances from both. So getting good shooting from Ionescu could be an absolute key for New York.

Filippou: The Liberty were within reach of winning a championship, with those two scoring poorly on Friday thanks to the contributions of Jones, Leonie Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. So maybe it’s not impossible to win in such circumstances – especially if Jones takes off – but it makes the margin for error much smaller.

Yet it is no coincidence that in the two final losses to New York, Ionecsu shot 30.8% and 33.3% (compared to 55.6% and 41.7% in their wins) and Stewart under 30% (compared to 38.9% and 45%).

Stewart and Ionescu are New York’s leaders and need to make shots in the most important game of their Liberty careers. But the Liberty also need to clean up some of their offensive process; New York’s movement and decision-making on offense in parts of this series are more likely to be the culprit than missing shots.

Cream: No. That might seem like too absolute a response, considering New York nearly won Game 4, with its two biggest stars combining to shoot 10-for-36. Stewart and Ionescu also shot poorly in Game 1, an overtime loss to the Liberty. And that’s exactly it: in New York’s wins in this series, Stewart has scored 21 and 30 points. Ionescu made 10 of 21 shots combined in Games 2 and 3 and had the game-winning 3-pointer in Game 3. Sure, Jones and Fiebich were excellent in Game 4, but we’ve seen that’s not enough. New York needs its stars, at least one of them, to be just that to win the first title in franchise history.

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The Lynx have already won one game at Barclays this series. How do they pull someone else out?

Filippou: They will have to put on another defensive masterclass. In the two games, Minnesota lost this series, New York shot over 45% from the floor and 40% from 3. And as we discussed earlier, slowing down Ionescu and Stewart would go a long way. If Stewart and Collier neutralize each other, can a combination of Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Bridget Carleton hit big shots?

Voepel: If the Lynx take a late lead, they might be able to force the Liberty into splintering like they did in Game 1. It just felt like the New York players didn’t really pull together in that loss as they all tried to make up for it. soloed the ship after their 15-point lead slipped away in the final five minutes of regulation.

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Which team will win on Sunday?

Cream: New York. But it will be a tight one again. Stewart will bounce back and make a big play. The Liberty earned home field advantage by being the best team in the league all season. That’s what it’s meant for, and the crowd at the Barclays Center, which will almost certainly number more than 18,000 people, will give New York just enough of a boost.

Philip: New York. This series was full of surprises, but I stand by my original prediction. Courtney Williams continued to say before Game 3 that the Lynx didn’t want to go back to Brooklyn because of the crowd’s energy for the Liberty. And after the Aces celebrated a championship on the Barclays Center floor last year, the Liberty won’t let a visiting team do that again.

Voepel: Minnesota. Reeve had the best possible answer Friday for what would decide Game 5: “They’re two great teams. Who knows?” That’s why this series is so good. Even with the Liberty having the best regular season record and being the No. 1 seed, the Lynx had New York’s best in the regular season and in the Commissioner’s Cup final. It’s really coordinated.

As Charlie and Alexa said, the crowd at Barclays could be a sixth player in this game; the energy level will be great. But since I chose the Lynx at the beginning of the series, I’m sticking with it.