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Georgia’s omission from the 12-team CFP projection shows that the strength of the schedule is a myth
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Georgia’s omission from the 12-team CFP projection shows that the strength of the schedule is a myth

If you are the first to do something, you are often at a disadvantage. Everything what you are doing is setting precedents, and there is no manual for solving difficult situations.

That’s the space the College Football Playoff selection committee is occupying as it navigates an expanded postseason field. After releasing the second top 25 of the season on Tuesday, we now have a good understanding of what kind of overarching message the committee is sending to programs far and wide: The power of the schedule is a myth.

Look no further than the Georgia Bulldogs. Kirby Smart’s team checked in at No. 12 this week after falling to the No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels and trails the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide.

That’s as it should be, with the Bulldogs losing in both Oxford, Miss., and Tuscaloosa, Ala. Head-to-head rules all, unless you’re okay with putting the No. 22 LSU Tigers behind the No. 21 South Carolina Gamecocks. they’ve only been on the road for a few weeks (insert shrug emoji).

But why is Georgia the first team out when most of the teams ahead of us have even thinner resumes? (The Boise State Broncos are seeded 12th as they profile as the fifth-highest ranked Conference champions.) It should mean something when it comes to playing one of the toughest slates in sports, but, curiously, the Bulldogs aren’t getting the benefit of the doubt right now.

Georgia is coming off a convincing 15-point road win at the No. 3 Texas Longhorns. The Bulldogs defeated the No. 20 Clemson Tigers by four touchdowns on a neutral site. They did it all while playing just two FBS teams at home ahead of next Saturday’s showdown against the No. 7 Tennesseee Volunteers between the hedges. It’s a hard road, no matter how good you are.

Notably, it’s also a resume flush with more ranked wins than the Longhorns, No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers. Combined. It’s also more than another team that has been living dangerously in recent weeks, the No. 9 Miami Hurricanes.

The selection committee has one job in this era of super conferences, varying conference schedules and a lack of productive non-league meetings: to consider the strength of the schedule and adjust the rankings accordingly. So far that hasn’t happened, because the conclusive evidence is that wins and losses are decisive against who those wins and losses are against.

“We look at strength of schedule in every comparison we make,” Warde Manuel, Michigan Wolverines athletic director and chairman of the selection committee, told the media Tuesday. “For each team we see different data points and the strength of the schedule is always there. Of course, we also watch the matches and see how a team plays, see the results of the matches and how teams play. We take (strength of the planning) into account. It’s one of the things we look at early in our deliberations every time we assess teams and compare them to others.”

The group of former players, coaches and administrators who meet in the Dallas area like to claim they’re starting over every week. As far as the process goes, that’s true. But when they really look at things with a clean slate, the extra data points lead less to coherent thinking and more to some headaches.

The BYU Cougars moved up to No. 6 despite a narrow escape in the Holy War against an unranked and struggling rival in the Utah Utes. Indiana also moved up despite a close call against the Michigan Wolverines. The Vols won by pulling away against the also undermanned Mississippi State Bulldogs and just stayed put. The No. 14 SMU Mustangs were off last weekend, but it’s increasingly looking like their only chance to make the field is to win the ACC despite a lone, close loss to the current Big 12 favorites.

Manuel noted that Texas, now the SEC’s top-ranked team, didn’t just rise because of losses to teams ahead of them, but cited a “decisive” win against the Florida Gators to complement the picture of how they played. Florida was down to one third-string quarterback, so a lopsided score in Austin was probably expected, but it’s still hard to come to grips with the fact that the nation’s third-best team has zero wins over ranked teams and their best win was a close victory over the Vanderbilt Commodores.

This isn’t a Vandy team like in years past — just ask Alabama — but it’s hard to overcome the mental logistics of thinking that’s fine and dandy.

No one is saying Georgia should be back in the top five, or even just outside. It didn’t seem like the schedule was one of the preseason favorites to win the national title (and that early opinion shouldn’t matter). Quarterback Carson Beck has struggled and turned into an interception machine. The offensive line isn’t getting much pressure up front, and even Smart’s normally reliable defense has fallen away.

And yet here we are, with the committee having all but turned the Bulldogs into a sympathetic figure. Georgia has had to overcome a challenge and instead of taking it into account compared to the competition, the country is being overlooked.

“Every team in America will realize what I’m saying when the best thing people can do is keep winning and then drop everything as far as the rankings go,” Manuel said.

How very Al Davis of him.

Just win, babyisn’t the official slogan of the College Football Playoff as it enters the 12-team era, but based on two weeks of committee rankings, it’s looking more and more like it should be.