According to data released today, the number of Republican voters nearly tripled Democratic registrations in October.

Republicans last received 16,945 registrations, compared to 6,015 for Democrats. Republicans have gained ground against Democrats in recent months, and Democrats now outnumber Republicans by about 906,000.

Notably, non-affiliated registrants outnumbered both parties last month, with 44,484 new registrants. Clearly it is difficult to predict how they will vote.

Democrats now make up 37.7% of registered voters, while Republicans represent 24.2% of registered voters statewide. These numbers are similar to last month’s — with more than 6.7 million registered voters in the state, it’s going to take a lot of effort to make a dent in the overall makeup.

The last day to register to vote in Tuesday’s election was October 15. Friday’s voter registration update is the last before the election.

Zoom in on NJ-7

All eyes are on New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, which many believe is the only truly competitive federal election in the state (and also one of the most competitive in the country).

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) is facing a challenge from Sue Altman in a contest that has received significant amounts of outside spending.

The 7th arrondissement received almost 5,000 registrations in October. Unaffiliated voter registrants accounted for 3,081 registrations in the district, a clear majority. Democrats got 446 registered voters and Republicans 1,243 — reason enough for Republicans to be hopeful, while still keeping in mind that the new, unaffiliated voters could vote any way they wanted.

In the 7th century, registered Democrats make up 30.5% of the electorate, while Republicans make up 33.6% of the electorate. Neither party can operate without the consent of unaffiliated voters, who make up 34.8% of the district’s voters.

Here’s how the district was made up at this point in 2022: 30.7% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 34.8% unaffiliated. Republicans have certainly made the smallest dent, but the electorate is largely unchanged from 2022 in terms of partisanship.

(Compared to 2020 or earlier, it would be apples and oranges, given the redistribution.)

There are no hidden indicators in this data about who might prevail (and there are no known indicators in advanced voting data, for that matter). The answer won’t bear fruit until Tuesday evening. Tune in.

Looking back

Before we go, let’s take a look at voter registration data in presidential election years.

Comparing this month’s data to 2020’s data reveals the significant stance Republicans have taken toward Democrats.

In 2020, Democrats made up 38.9% of the electorate, compared to 37.7% today. Four years ago, Republicans made up 22.3% of the electorate, but today that number is only 24.2%.

The 1.08 million voters Democrats had at this point four years ago is now down to about 900,000. These numbers aren’t necessarily time-changing, but they do show a trend that shows little sign of stopping.

Democrats can take solace in the fact that they are better off now than they were in 2016, at least according to voter registration data.

At this point in 2016, Democrats made up 35.6% of registered voters. The Trump era ushered in years of strong voter registration for Democrats, which may have initially given the party an unsustainable lead.