Prop Bet #1: Alex Cobb Under 2.5 strikeouts

+126 at FanDuel

The Cleveland Guardians will give the ball to right-hander Alex Cobb on Wednesday, and he should serve as one of the top regression candidates. In a limited campaign, Cobb posted a 2.76 ERA through three starts.

However, his underlying stats suggest a steep regression is looming, as the right-hander has an xERA of 4.87 and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity and number of hard-hit players. I want to address this likely decline by dropping Cobb in the prop market, considering he ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates.

While 2.5 is a small number, the 37-year-old will be on a short leash in Game 3 with the little he has thrown this season.

Prop Bet #2: Riley Greene Over 1.5 bases total

+143 at BetRivers

Another reason I want Cobb gone on Wednesday is that I don’t trust his poor power numbers against some of the sluggers in this Detroit Tigers lineup. I’ll be rooting for two Detroit hitters in Game 3, starting with Riley Greene.

Greene may be one of the most underrated power hitters in baseball. This season, he ranked in the 83rd percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel velocity and hard-hit percentage.

As I highlighted in the previous section, Cobb is particularly troubled by the average exit rate and the number of hard-hit companies.

Additionally, Greene’s numbers improve when he pitches right-handed, as he has a .280 BA, .496 SLG, and .873 OPS against that hand.

Prop Bet #3: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 bases total

+148 at BetRivers

Continuing the trend of backing power hitters against Cobb, I also want to focus on Detroit’s Kerry Carpenter in Game 3.

He just homered in Game 2, and he should be able to find similar success against Cobb on Wednesday. This season, Carpenter compiled a dominant .570 xSLG, a 17.7% barrel rate, and a 46.4% hard hit percentage.

Those are some of the best power analyzes in baseball, and he only improves when throwing right-handed. Through 264 plate appearances against righties this season, Carpenter produced a .305 BA, .631 SLG and .994 OPS.