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Harris leads crucial swing state in new poll
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Harris leads crucial swing state in new poll

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied in the crucial state of Pennsylvania in Sunday’s latest surveys, the last of the past week, showing a close race in the swing state that holds the winner of the 2024 could determine. election.

Key facts

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points), a slight dip in Harris’ three-point lead in a pair New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released Oct. 12.

Harris leads in three other polls released last week, Trump is ahead in three, and two others show them tied.

Harris is up by two points, 50%-48%, in a Marist poll of undecided voters leaning toward a candidate (margin of error 3.4 points), and by one point, 48%-47%, in a Washington Post. poll (margin of error 3.1 points), both released Friday, with the Post poll representing no movement in the race since the September survey.

Trump is up 50%-49% in a two-way Fox News poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania — well within the three-point margin of error — and he has a 47%-46% lead in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters Wednesday published (margin of error 2.1 points, and respondents could choose other candidates).

Harris also has a narrow lead of 49%-48% in a Cooperative Election Study survey released this week (3,685 respondents, surveyed as part of a national survey of universities conducted by YouGov).

Meanwhile, the race is dead, even at 48%-48% in a CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters on Wednesday — while just 8% said they are undecided or might change their minds — and CBS/YouGov found a similar 49% . 49% are right in a likely voter poll released Tuesday.

Turnout could play a role: Trump had a 47%-46% lead in a Monmouth poll of all registered voters released Wednesday, but the race is tied at 48%-48% among respondents who are extremely motivated to vote, and Harris leads 48%-47% among people who voted in most or all general elections since 2014 (margin of error 3.8 points).

The polling averages are close, with a small lead for Trump: Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 0.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight average.

Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for ten of the last twelve White House winners. The candidate who won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) over the past eight elections.

Pennsylvania is far more likely to tip the election than any other state, according to statistician Nate Silver’s election prediction model, which also shows that both candidates have a greater than 85% chance of winning the win elections if they secure Pennsylvania.

Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden — who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania — reversed the trend in 2020, with the state putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the elections. Secondary school

Pennsylvania is also important to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

The state has a high share of working-class white voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white — a demographic that Trump has generally performed well with, although Harris has made gains among white voters compared to performance of Biden in 2020. , according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, Trump is trailing by just three points nationally, after Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.

Surprising fact

Since 1948, no Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, and the trend of also winning Wisconsin and Michigan continues, she is almost certain to win the White House.

Important background

If Trump maintains his leads in Arizona and Georgia and wins North Carolina, as he is expected to do, he will need only one of the “Blue Wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) to win the White House.

Big number

82%. That’s the share of registered voters in Pennsylvania who say the economy is an important factor in their 2024 vote, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%, according to a CBS/YouGov survey. The results are similar to those of the national electorate, according to a recent Pew Research survey of registered voters, which found that 81% of registered voters view the economy as “very important” in the election.

Chief critic

Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked Harris over her past endorsement of a fracking ban — Pennsylvania is the nation’s second-largest natural gas producer. “Fracking? She has been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during the debate in Philadelphia. Harris, who said “There is no question that I support banning fracking” during a CNN climate town hall in 2019 while running for president, has said she has since changed her position. During a debate with Trump, Harris said she made “very clear” in 2020 that she opposes a ban on fracking, presumably referring to her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, and noted that the Inflation Reduction Act opened up new gas leasing deals – reiterating a position she had taken. in a CNN interview last month. Harris didn’t actually say she had changed her own position on the issue during the 2020 debate — instead, she said then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden “will not stop fracking.”

Tangent

Pennsylvania has a divided state legislature. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is very popular in the state. The Democrats also control the House of Representatives, but the Republicans have the majority in the Senate.

Read more

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris narrowly leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, but tied in Pennsylvania (Forbes)

How Kamala Harris’ views on fracking have changed after pushing back on the ban (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris rises 1 point – as her pre-debate leading plateau (Forbes)