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    • Harris rises in election betting markets after presidential debate
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    Harris rises in election betting markets after presidential debate

    Vaseline Posted on

    Topline

    Vice President Kamala Harris surpassed President Donald Trump on Tuesday night to become the bookmakers’ favorite to win the November election after a strong performance in the first presidential debate.

    Key Facts

    According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which aggregates betting figures from four separate markets, bookmakers now believe Harris has a 51.8% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 46.9%.

    This is a major shift in Harris’s favor, whose odds have increased by more than four and a half points over the past 24 hours, while Trump’s odds have fallen by four points.

    Bettors on crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, who had been heavily betting on a Trump victory for the past two weeks, now believe both Harris and Trump have a 49% chance of winning.

    On UK betting site Smarkets, bookmakers are now predicting Harris has a 51.55% chance of winning (up from 47.5% last week), while Trump’s odds have fallen to 46.3%.

    On PredictIt, the only platform where bettors gave Harris better odds than Trump before the debate, the vice president extended her lead and now has odds of 56 cents per share (which equates to about a 56% chance), compared to Trump’s 47 cents per share.

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    Surprising fact

    While betting markets believe the election will remain fairly close, there is a strong consensus among bettors that Harris won the debate. Polymarket bookmakers believe Harris has a 98% chance of being judged the winner of Tuesday night’s debate in consolidated post-debate snap polls.

    Large number

    2.7%. That’s the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

    Tangent

    Unlike other betting markets, PredictIt only allows US residents aged 18 or over to participate. Earlier this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a ban on all election-related bets on the US derivatives market. The agency’s move came after it was sued by PredictIt for attempting to shut down the platform for accepting bets on the presidential election, even though it had previously been allowed to do so.

    Read more

    Election Betting Markets Turn Trump’s Way Again (Forbes)

    Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up 1 Point — As Her Lead Stabilizes Ahead of Debate (Forbes)

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