Trustworthy Conservation Iowa shifts to Kamala Harris

A shocking survey shows Conservatives are not in a good position in their strong turn in Iowa as Kamala Harris has a three-point lead over Donald Trump in the latest poll, describing it as a “stunning turnaround” for the Republican. The final study was published in the Des Moines Register newspaper. It has put Kamala Harris at 47 percent above Trump at 44 percent. J Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co, the firm that conducted the poll, said: “It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming. She had clearly moved into a leadership position.” And this happened in a month and a half, when Trump had a four-point lead over Harris and in June Trump was 18 points ahead of Biden.
Election expert Nate Silver responded to the shocking poll, saying it means someone is wrong. Anne Selzer of Selzer & Co has a long history of “going against conventional wisdom and being right,” Silver wrote.
“Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of courage because – let me say this as carefully as I can – if you had to play the odds, Selzer would probably be wrong this time. Harris’s chances of winning Iowa have nearly doubled in our model from 9 percent to 17 percent tonight, which is not nothing. Polymarket shows a similar trend, from 6 percent to 18 percent after the survey, but that still puts Harris’ odds at around 5:1,” Silver wrote.
The recent poll of 808 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and 31 and had a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
What could have gone wrong in Iowa?
Trump won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020, making Iowa a ruby ​​red state. But the nationally recognized poll shows that Kamala Harris has received support from Iowa women — likely on the abortion issue. Robert F Kennedy Jr., who has abandoned his independent presidential campaign, will remain on the ballot in Iowa and he received 3 percent of the vote, down from 6 percent in September and 9 percent in June.
“The results come as Trump and Harris have focused their attention almost exclusively on seven battleground states that are expected to determine the outcome of the election. Neither campaign has campaigned in Iowa since the end of the presidential primaries, and neither campaign has built a ground presence in the United States. state,” according to the Des Moines Register.
The poll found that older women and politically independent women are driving the recent shift toward Harris. “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors explaining these numbers,” says Selzer.