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Harris vs. Trump showdown: New national poll shows who has the lead two weeks after Election Day
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Harris vs. Trump showdown: New national poll shows who has the lead two weeks after Election Day

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A new national poll is the latest to show former President Trump has a lead over Vice President Harris in the race to succeed President Biden in the White House.

Trump has 47% support among likely voters nationwide, with Harris at 45%, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday night — in a vote that also includes third-party and independent candidates.

That’s a change from the Journal’s previous national survey, conducted in late August, which showed Harris with a two-point lead.

The former president’s advantage is within the new study’s margin of error, meaning Trump or the vice president could potentially lead the race.

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Trump at NC meeting

Former President Donald Trump waves during a campaign rally at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina, on Tuesday. (AP/Alex Brandon)

The Wall Street Journal poll – of 1,500 registered voters surveyed between October 19 and 22 – also shows Trump with a 3-point margin (49%-46%) over Harris in a head-to-head matchup.

The survey shows that views of Harris have become more negative since August, with her favorable rating 8 points underwater and her approval rating as vice president at 42%-54%. Meanwhile, views of Trump have improved, with voters approving of his past performance in the White House by a 52%-48% margin.

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The new poll follows a Fox News national survey conducted Oct. 11-14 and released last week that showed the Republican presidential candidate with a two-point lead over the Democratic Party standard-bearer.

Many other national surveys in this area over the past two weeks, including polls from CBS News, Marist and USA Today/Suffolk University, have shown Harris with a narrow lead over Trump. But the polls are usually within the margin of error.

The latest national poll from Fox News.

The latest national poll from Fox News.

Harris replaced a faltering President Biden atop the Democrats’ 2024 ticket on July 21, immediately experiencing a fundraising surge and a surge in her poll numbers.

Harris had a lead over Trump in most national polls during the Democratic National Convention in late August and the first and only debate between the vice president and the former president in early September.

WHAT THE LATEST FOX NEWS POLLS SHOW INTO THE HARRIS-TRUMP SHOWDOWN

But many national surveys conducted in late September and October indicate Trump is making gains at Harris’ expense.

The latest Fox News polls (Trump with 50% support and Harris with 48%) were a reversal from last month, when the vice president had the lead.

Trump and Harris in Pennsylvania split picture

Vice President Kamala Harris entered the final full month of the campaign with a huge financial advantage over former President Trump, according to the latest federal fundraising filings. (Getty Images)

“Overall, the move toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he makes gains among college-educated voters,” said veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News polls with Republican Daron Shaw . “However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely depend on which side is more effective at getting to the polls than persuading.”

While national polls are useful, the race for the White House is not based on the national popular vote but is instead a battle over the states and their electoral votes.

And the latest surveys in the seven crucial battleground states, whose razor-thin margins determined President Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump and will likely determine whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 election, are largely within the margin of error.

The Fox News poll showed Harris with a six-point lead over Trump among respondents surveyed in all seven battleground states.

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While polls point to a race within the margins, in the battle for campaign cash — another key metric in presidential politics — Harris is the clear frontrunner.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at the University of Wisconsin La Crosse in La Crosse, Wisconsin, on October 17.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at the University of Wisconsin La Crosse in La Crosse, Wisconsin, on October 17. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

The vice president entered the final full month of the campaign with a huge financial advantage over the former president, according to the latest federal fundraising filings.

According to the filings, the Harris campaign raised $221.8 million in September, more than triple the $63 million the Trump campaign raised last month.

Harris has massively increased and outspent Trump in recent months, and that trend continued in September. The Harris campaign’s largest expense was paid media, mainly for running ads.

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But the vice president still enjoyed a large cash advantage over Trump entering October.

The Harris campaign reported $187 million in cash at the end of September, compared to $119 million for the Trump campaign.

The fundraising totals reported by the two major party campaigns do not include additional money raised by the party’s two national committees, other affiliated organizations – both campaigns use a range of affiliated fundraising committees to raise cash – or aligned super- PACs supporting Harris. and Trump.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more on our Fox News Digital election hub.