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Vice President Kamala Harris will compete against each other Donald Trump in just 22 days, as Americans cast their ballots in the 2024 election.

Several polls over the past week have revealed a shrinking national lead for Harris, meaning wit’s only a few weeks awaythe race only gets more exciting.

A series of polls showed Trump leading in several swing states, with margins mostly too close to call. But Trump may be losing his grip on the older generations of voters, with the newest generations New York Times polls with the two candidates divided by a hairline – and Harris three points ahead.

How will Harris and Trump fare in November, now that almost 1 in 10 Republicans lean left?

The latest average of national polls, compiled by FiveThirtyEight, shows Harris with a 2.4 point lead over Trump. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for several months.

In a new ABC and Ipsos poll, Harris leads by just two points, with 49 percent of the vote, and Trump with 47 percent.

The same poll in September had a 4-point lead for Harris. The strongest shift has been among independent voters, as Harris’ lead over them has fallen from 10 points to just 5.

The ABC poll isn’t the only one showing a narrowing lead for Harris. But the reasons why Trump has gained more support in the past month are not entirely clear, as he has not attracted much positive press after the presidential debate.

It’s possible that Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance’s more moderate and measured debate performance may have reassured some Trump voters who were on the fence.

One of the most important issues could be the current state of the economy.

The same poll shows that the majority (59 percent) of Americans believe the U.S. economy is worsening.

Trump remains the overall favorite for those confident he can better manage the economy, with 46 percent of voters choosing him over Harris (38 percent).

Despite the Harris campaign’s best efforts, ABC polls have consistently shown Trump leading in confidence on the economy and inflation.

Swing states

The latest set of swing state polls from Emerson College show Trump leading in four of the seven swing states, and Harris in just one.

The polls show neither candidate leading by more than two points in any state, meaning the race is still far too close to call just weeks before Election Day.

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Trump now leads by a hair in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the candidates are tied in Michigan — where Harris previously appeared to be in the lead — and Wisconsin.

The Independent’s DC correspondent John Bowden reports that after Harris’ honeymoon, the election is now “really anyone’s ball game.”

The poll also found that the gender gap between Trump and Harris varies widely in each state.

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In Arizona, for example, there appears to be no significant distinction between the way men and women vote. But in all other swing states there is a striking gender gap, especially in Georgia, where Harris has a 12-point lead among women, while Trump has a 14-point lead among men.

Demographics

The latest polls from the New York Times/Siena College, Harris has a 3-point lead, at 49 percent, and Trump at 46 percent.

The strongest support group for Harris remains young voters and people from non-white backgrounds. Trump’s main group is white voters who are not college students.

Meanwhile, to the chagrin of the Trump campaign, the poll suggests that older generations of voters are no longer staunchly Republican.

For both Gen X and Boomers, Trump’s lead has narrowed significantly over the past few years New York Times/ Siena College Polls.

In fact, the two candidates are actually evenly split between both groups, as Trump only has leads of 1 and 2 points, within the margin of error of +-2.4.

While it remains to be seen how this will change in the final term, the Republican Party has won over 65 in every election since 2000.

Moreover, nearly 1 in 10 (9 percent) of Republicans could vote for Harris and cross party lines.

Of the 898 Republicans surveyed in early October, 9 percent said they would vote for Harris next month. The same poll showed 5 percent in September.

The gender gap between Trump and Harris voters remains wide, with women leaning left and men leaning right.

Unstable polls in Florida

There has been a lot of interest in the polls in Florida in recent weeks, with Harris appearing to want to take over Trump’s lead in his home state.

Figures from historically Republican pollster RMG Research show Trump with 50 percent of the vote and Harris with 48 percent in Florida, home to Mar-a-Lago and several key Republicans.

However, new polls from The New York Times show that Trump has a strong +13 point lead in the Sunshine State, at 55 percent to Harris’s 41 percent.

While this is inconsistent with several recent polls in the state, New York Times Analyst Nate Cohn suggests this poll is not an outlier, saying: “Mr. Trump (is excelling) in states where Republicans performed well in the 2022 midterm elections – as they did in Florida. As a result, this poll is not the usual outlier.”

“If Florida turns more solidly Republican in 2024, it suggests that the unrest during and after the pandemic has had a lasting effect on American politics.”

Vance wins the VP debate and a popularity boost

Last week’s debate between Senator Vance of Ohio and Governor Walz of Minnesota turned expectations upside down; with betting markets and pre-polls looking at Walz as the likely winner.

Vance not only “won” the debate, but his actions appear to have done wonders for his public perception, which has been suffering for months.

Our pre-debate analysis showed Walz leading Trump, Vance and even Harris in terms of favorability.

According to the latest YouGov poll, Vance received a positive boost of +11 points during last week’s debate.

This puts Vance in a neutral position, while voters overall had an 11 percent unfavorable opinion of him before the debate.

Most interestingly, Vance improved his favorability by an astonishing +19 points among Democrats. Although overall, he still has a net negative score of –52 percent among this group.

Walz also received a more modest 3-point increase, reaching a 15 percent favorability position in the YouGov poll.

Although Walz’s performance did not win the debate, he is still the most favored candidate, and after the debate he even improved his favorability among independent voters.

Within his own party, however, he lost the approval of 7 percent of voters, still finishing with a net positive of 72 percent favorability with Democrats.

Snap polls after the debate show viewers were split between both candidates, with Vance ahead by a few points.

A CBS/YouGov poll found that 42 percent of viewers considered Vance the winner of the debate, compared to 41 percent for Walz.

However, Walz emerged as more in touch with average Americans, and more likely to share voters’ vision of America.

Important issues for voters

Regardless of political persuasion, the economy is the most important issue affecting how people will vote in this election.

A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 2,500 U.S. adults through September 26 shows that abortion is considered the second most important issue for 37 percent of voters, followed by immigration at 34 percent.

For Trump voters, however, these priorities have been reversed.

More than half (57 percent) of Trump voters see immigration as one of the top issues, amid border security tensions and recently debunked claims by Trump and Republicans about Haitian migrants.

Interestingly enough, health care and abortion are the next most important issues for Trump voters – each at 23 percent.

Although Trump has advocated for an overhaul of Obamacare, with failed attempts during his presidency, he failed to outline an alternative health care policy during the presidential debate in September.

Meanwhile, abortion is central to Harris voters (55 percent), with Harris himself critical of abortion bans following the undoing of the Constitution. Roe v. Wade.

Healthcare is also a top priority for Harris voters (40 percent), followed by housing (23 percent).

Who will vote?

A YouGov/Economist According to the poll, Harris has a three-point lead among registered voters, at 47 percent, and Trump at 44 percent. The poll shows Harris with a wide margin of 25 points among young voters aged 29 and under.

However, according to the same poll, younger generations are also the least committed to voting: 13 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed say they “may” vote, while 3 percent will not vote or are still unsure. .

This equates to 16 percent who are unsure or not voting, higher than any other age group, and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed said they would definitely vote in November.

This is compared to 77 percent of 30 to 44 year olds, 85 percent of 45 to 64 year olds and 94 percent of those over 65.

While the numbers may seem bleak and represent some hesitancy among younger voters, the overall picture is significantly more engaged than in 2020.

The same YouGov/Economist A poll at this stage of the 2020 presidential election found that almost a third of young people (27 percent) did not want to vote in November, with 10 percent “maybe” and 17 percent “definitely/probably” not going to vote .