How Really Is Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart a Heisman Candidate?

The senior is now the No. 5 favorite for the Heisman at BetMGM at +2000 after throwing for six touchdowns in the Rebels’ win over Arkansas in Week 10. Dart was responsible for two-thirds of Ole Miss’ scores in the 63-31 win as he was 25 of 31 passing for 515 yards. Yes, he threw as many incompletions as he did touchdown passes.

It was a touchdown blast from a player who hasn’t been responsible for that many scores in recent weeks. Since throwing four touchdowns in Ole Miss’ win over Georgia Southern on September 21, Dart had thrown just three touchdowns in the Rebels’ last four games. It’s also no coincidence that his lack of TD passes coincided with Ole Miss’ 2-2 record in that stretch. Ole Miss is fourth in the nation in scoring at just over 42 points per game, but the win over Arkansas marked the first time the Rebels have scored more than 27 in an SEC game this season.

The productive game against Arkansas also couldn’t have come at a better time to boost the hopes of the Ole Miss fanbase. Saturday’s home game against Georgia must be won.

At 7-2 and 3-2 in the SEC, the Rebels have no room for error in either the SEC title race or the battle for the College Football Playoff. And they don’t have another big game anymore either. After a week off in Week 12, Ole Miss will play Florida and Mississippi State to close out the season.

If Ole Miss wants to compete for the playoffs, it must beat Georgia. And if Dart really wants to compete for the Heisman, he needs to have a big game if Ole Miss beats Georgia.

Dart’s season stats are very good. He leads the nation in passing yards with 3,210, although he has played one more game than many of his peers. He doesn’t just rack up those yards through quantity, though. He’s also the best in the country at 11.6 yards per pass attempt. Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke is second with 10.5 yards per pass. No other QB is in double figures.

However, it’s hard to see how Dart wins the Heisman without Ole Miss making the playoff or perhaps even reaching the SEC title game. Yes, Jayden Daniels won the Heisman a season ago while LSU went 9-3 and didn’t sniff the playoff, but Dart doesn’t have the rushing stats that Daniels did. Similar to last season, Dart is averaging 3.3 yards per carry after sacks are factored in and has only rushed for three touchdowns. He currently ranks 10th among all players in total touchdowns. Daniels finished second in 2023 and averaged the most scores per game of any player.

A win over Georgia on Saturday moves Dart further into the Heisman conversation. But it still might not be enough to make him more than a trivial finalist at best.

Here are our four other players to watch in Week 11:

Colorado DB/WR Travis Hunter (+175): Hunter has become the nominal favorite over Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel as Colorado now finds itself in the thick of the Big 12 title race, thanks to losses to Kansas State and Iowa State in Week 10. As long as Hunter remains healthy, it will be a surprise if he’s not a Heisman finalist.

Miami QB Cam Department (+200): Ward’s chances are better than Gabriel’s, as he has managed a Miami team that has defensive deficiencies that Oregon does not. Ward leads the nation with 29 passing TDs and should add a few more to that total on Saturday against Georgia Tech.

Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel (+300): Is Saturday night a chance for Gabriel to improve his stats? The Ducks are 25-point favorites at home against Maryland. The Terrapins just gave up 48 points against Minnesota and 37 points against Northwestern.

Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (+500): Jeanty will finally get a chance to play in prime time on network television on Saturday. Yes, Boise State’s home game against Nevada falls at the same time as Alabama’s trip to LSU, but at least Jeanty will be on Fox at a time when most college football fans are awake.