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Helene heading toward Big Bend, Florida with 115 mph winds

Vaseline September 24, 2024

Helene, which developed into a tropical storm on Tuesday, is expected to quickly strengthen into a powerful and massive Category 3 hurricane before likely hitting the Big Bend on Thursday night, bringing “potentially catastrophic” winds and storm surge.

At 5 p.m., residents of North Florida’s phones rang after meteorologists issued hurricane warnings for Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Leon, Madison, Taylor and Wakulla counties.

There was also a storm surge warning in effect that could cause up to 15 feet of flooding along the Apalachee Bay coast.

The National Hurricane Center’s increasing uncertainty cone continued to indicate a landfall from Panama City to Cedar Key. The center line, which meteorologists warn people not to aim for, remained over Tallahassee in the 5 p.m. forecast.

Helene was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday morning and a major hurricane on Thursday morning, with winds of 110 mph (177 km/h) or greater.

Israel Gonzalez, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, told the Tallahassee Democrat that Helene is expected to maintain major hurricane strength “right up until the moment it makes landfall.”

“(There’s) very, very high confidence in the north-northwest track that would bring its core somewhere along the Apalachee Bay coast,” said Israel Gonzalez, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. “It’s a pretty significant situation that appears to be unfolding for this part of the Big Bend, given what’s in the forecast right now.”

And while the timing could still change, Helene could make landfall Thursday night or even early Friday. Tropical storm force winds could arrive as early as Thursday morning, Gonzalez said.

The Hurricane Center predicted peak wind gusts of 115 mph (185 km/h), a low Category 3. That’s powerful enough to destroy mobile homes and cause structural damage to even sturdy buildings.

“Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected near the final landfall and inland along the path,” the Weather Service said. “Widespread power outages, damage to critical infrastructure, numerous roadblocks, and damage to structures are all possible.”

The city of Tallahassee, which is bracing for possible severe damage to its power grid, urged residents to make final preparations.

“Expected impacts to our area include severe wind damage and flooding,” the city said in an email update.

Emergency services are already en route to Florida’s capital from Missouri, Louisiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Oklahoma.

“We’re a Tree City USA — it’s one of the things we’re known for, and we’re a beautiful community,” Mayor John Dailey told Accuweather in an interview. “But as you know, high wind storms and trees don’t mix. We expect significant damage if it’s a Cat. 2 or higher that comes directly to Tallahassee. We’ll have to wait and see what Mother Nature brings.”

The weather service said Helene could cause life-threatening storm surge along the Apalachee Bay coast, with possible storm surges of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) between the Ochlockonee and Suwannee rivers and 6 to 10 feet (1.8 to 3 meters) from the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass in Gulf County.

According to Gonzalez, Helene is expected to grow to enormous proportions, meaning its impacts will be felt far beyond the center.

“In addition, that could amplify the surge in an already incredibly vulnerable storm surge area like Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast,” he said. “So that’s going to be a big concern as well.”

Helene could also bring widespread rainfall of 3 to 6 inches (7.5 to 15 centimeters), with isolated amounts of 10 inches (25 centimeters).

At 5 p.m. Tuesday, Helene reached maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and is expected to pick up even more winds as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico.

“Right now you have time, so take advantage of it,” DeSantis said Tuesday morning from the State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. “Review … and make sure you’re implementing your hurricane preparedness plan.”

“This has the potential to be a very, very big storm.”

Under the threat of Hurricane Helene, a flood of closures began. Tallahassee State College, Florida A&M University and Florida State University are all closed Wednesday through Friday. Leon County Schools followed suit with a half-day closure on Wednesday and then full closures the rest of the week, as school campuses transition to shelters.

The storm also prompted a flurry of evacuation orders in the Big Bend on Tuesday. Franklin County issued a mandatory evacuation for all barrier islands (St. George Island, Dog Island, Bald Point and Alligator Point), low-lying and flood-prone areas, particularly along the coast and rivers, and mobile home and RV parks.

Meanwhile, Franklin and Wakulla counties issued mandatory evacuations, citing what Wakulla County Sheriff Jared Miller described as an expected storm surge that would be “unsurvivable.”

“This system will be unlike anything we have ever experienced,” the Taylor County Sheriff’s Office wrote in a Facebook alert. “A curfew will be in effect from dusk to dawn. Repeat, this is a MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER for everyone.”

Contact Jeff Burlew at [email protected] or 850-599-2180.