Topline

Third-party candidates are on the ballot in crucial swing states, and with the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remaining virtually tied, a few votes for smaller candidates could determine the difference.

Key facts

Which Swing States have third party candidates, and how are these candidates rated?

• Arizona: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has 2% of the vote and Oliver 1% in a Times/Siena poll released Nov. 3. In the same poll, Trump has a four-point lead.
• Michigan: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 2%, West has less than 1% and Oliver has 1% in the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (45% to 45%).
• Wisconsin: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 1%, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% in the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris led Trump by three points.
• Georgia: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. According to the Times/Siena poll, Stein has less than 1% and Oliver has 2%. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (46% vs. 46%).
• Nevada: Oliver is on the ballot; According to the Times/Siena poll, he has 2% of the vote. In the same poll, Harris is three points ahead of Trump.
• North Carolina: Stein, Oliver and West are on the ballot. According to the Times/Siena poll, Stein has less than 1% of the vote, West less than half a percentage point and Oliver less than 1% of the vote. In the same poll, Harris is three points ahead of Trump.
• Pennsylvania: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. According to the Times/Siena poll, Stein has about 1% of the vote, and Oliver has less than 1% of the vote. In the same poll, Harris and Trump are tied, 47%-47%.

Crucial quote

“This year, third parties appear to be gaining very little traction and are likely to play a very limited role, but (in) an extremely close election, where a few thousand votes in three or four states could determine the outcome, a third party that could even decline of tenths of 1% could make a difference,” Bruce Schulman, a historian and professor at Boston University, told Forbes via email.

Important background

Third-party candidates have virtually no chance of winning the election, given the funding and popularity required to make a dent in the electoral and popular vote. Historically, no third-party candidate has won a presidential race — and they often underperform in the polls, Pew Research Center notes. Yet many of these candidates have spent money, effort, and even lawsuits to be included on the ballot (or removed from the ballot). The candidates are often accused of serving as spoilers, a notion that third-party candidates typically deny, arguing that they offer voters an ideological option not offered to them by any of the major parties. Alleged spoilers in recent years include 2016 candidates Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who received 1% and 3% of the vote, respectively. Some claim Stein damaged Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign: the Green Party candidate won tens of thousands of votes in Wisconsin, a number greater than the margin by which Trump became president. Common candidate Ralph Nader would also be a spoiler because of his 2000 campaign, where he earned a few percentage points in Florida, which George W. Bush narrowly won over Al Gore. The late billionaire Ross Perot famously ran for president in 1992 against Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican President George HW Bush. He received about 18.9% of the vote, the closest he came to victory as a third-party candidate in American history, and was widely expected to hurt Bush.

What is a protest vote?

In such a hotly contested race, some voters see voting for a third party as a means to protest the election or show dissatisfaction with two main candidates.

What to pay attention to

Stein has emerged as a favored candidate for some Muslim and Arab-American voters dissatisfied with President Joe Biden’s support for Israel in the invasion of Gaza. Her support is particularly strong in Michigan (home to a large Arab-American population), Arizona and Wisconsin, Reuters reports, citing a poll by an advocacy group, the Council on American-Islamic Relations. In Michigan, 40% of Muslim voters said they would vote for Stein, compared to 18% for Trump and 12% for Harris, according to CAIR.