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    • Here’s who wins in the latest presidential polls between Trump and Harris
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    Here’s who wins in the latest presidential polls between Trump and Harris

    Vaseline Posted on

    Topline

    Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead-heat race for the White House, according to the latest New York Times/Siena pre-election poll showing a tie but within the margin of error – the latest research into show that the race is virtually unpredictable less than two weeks before Election Day.

    Key facts

    Trump and Harris are tied at 48% of likely voters in the Times/Siena poll released Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats have won the popular vote in the recent elections, even if they haven’t. lost the White House, The Times notes.

    The poll represents a decline in support for Harris since The Times’ previous poll in early October, which showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump, while at least three surveys in the past week show Trump a has a small lead and six others. Harris thought leading.

    Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter survey Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

    Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he is one point higher, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.

    Several other recent polls show Harris with a lead: In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters, conducted from October 17 to 21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% lead over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

    Harris is up three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3), as third-party candidates joined the ballot and respondents were given the option to “other votes.” to choose. “Not sure” or “wouldn’t vote,” a one-point drop in her lead from the groups’ previous survey, conducted Oct. 12-15.

    Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results but lower than her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior last week.

    A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released on Tuesday, showed Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded numbers, within the two-point margin of error); Last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed her with a three-point lead, from 45% to 42%.

    Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters from Oct. 14 to 18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups last polled. In August, Harris was five points ahead.

    Harris also led Trump by just one point — 49%-48% — in the Emerson College survey of likely voters released Friday, after Harris posted a two-point lead in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

    Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.

    Who is favored to win the election: Harris or Trump?

    Trump is favored to win 51 times out of 100, compared to 49 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow lead at 52.8/46.9, but recently wrote that he has “never seen an election where the forecast was near 50/50 for longer.”

    Big number

    1.7. That is the number of points by which Harris leads Trump in the FiveThirtyEight polling average. Meanwhile, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows a tie, and Nate Silver has Harris 1.3 points higher in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

    How does Harris perform against Trump in swing states?

    Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, the Silver Bulletin said. All states have margins within less than two points.

    Surprising fact

    An NBC News poll released on September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is narrowing. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — conducted September 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found that 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who backed Trump and 6% who said they were unsure know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than the lead Democratic candidates have had in the past, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polls and a lead of 50 points in the 2016 polls. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

    How has the debate affected the polls?

    Pre-debate surveys showed Harris’ polling surge appeared to be stalling, including an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters from September 3 to 5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, a decline compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that a majority of voters in each demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris’ debate performance on September 10, with 67% overall saying they liked it did, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris rose 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken just days after the September 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from versus her six-point lead with likely voters. in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos polls — even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

    Important background

    Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of resisting calls from within his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her during a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls comes with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stagnated on 71%. according to a Monmouth University poll released on August 14.

    Read more

    New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points, but 12% are still deciding (Forbes)

    Elections 2024 Swing State Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

    Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 1 Point in Latest Poll – While Harris Struggles with Latinos (Forbes)

    Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads in Latest Poll – But Undecided Voters Could Sway Results (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris polls Arizona 2024: Trump up 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris polls Michigan 2024: Harris narrowly leads in latest survey (Forbes)

    Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest survey (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris polls in Wisconsin 2024: Harris leads by 3 points in latest survey (Forbes)

    2024 Trump-Harris polls in North Carolina: Trump leads by 3 points in latest survey (Forbes)

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