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    • Here’s who wins in the latest presidential polls between Trump and Harris
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    Here’s who wins in the latest presidential polls between Trump and Harris

    Vaseline Posted on

    Topline

    The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains an apparent dead end just over two weeks before the election, according to a series of surveys that largely show Harris with a narrow national lead over Trump — although the key swing states are virtually tied.

    Key facts

    Harris led Trump by just one point — 49%-48% — in the Emerson College survey of likely voters released Friday, after Harris posted a two-point lead in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

    Trump regained a lead over Harris in a Fox News poll released Wednesday that showed him up 50%-48% among likely voters — a change from Harris’ 50%-48% lead in September, after Trump led her 50%-49% in the election. August.

    Harris leads in two other surveys released Wednesday: She has a five-point lead (52%-47%) in a Marist College poll of likely voters, compared to Harris’ two-point lead in the closely watched September poll , and a four-point lead (49%-45%) in an Economist/YouGov likely voter poll, equal to Harris’ lead last week.

    Harris leads Trump 50%-46% in the weekly Morning Consult poll released Tuesday, compared with a 51%-45% lead in the two previous polls, and she has a 47%-44% lead in a new Ipsos/Reuters poll.

    Several other surveys show tighter margins: Trump trails Harris 51% to 49% in a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey of registered voters released Monday, after the two were tied in the groups’ September survey.

    Trump and Harris were tied at 48% in a new NBC poll of registered voters released Oct. 13, while an ABC/Ipsos poll released the same day put Harris ahead by two points (50%-48%) shows among likely voters. within the ABC poll’s 2.5-point margin of error — a shift after both ABC and NBC showed Harris leading by about five points last month.

    A third CBS/YouGov poll on October 13 showed Harris with a 51%-48% lead over Trump, with likely voters — slightly tighter than Harris’ 52%-48% lead last month — while Harris has a narrower lead of 50%-49% has in the elections. the seven theaters of battle.

    Harris is up 49% to 46% in an Oct. 8 New York Times/Siena poll, the first time since July she has led Trump in the groups’ polls.

    Three other polls from the past month — a Quinnipiac poll released on September 24 and a CNN/SSRS poll published on September 24 — showed Trump and Harris tied.

    Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.

    Who is favored to win the election: Harris or Trump?

    According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, Trump is favored to win 52 times out of 100, compared to 48 for Harris. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver puts Trump’s chances at 53.1/46.6, writing that he has “never seen an election where the forecast was closer to 50/50 for longer.”

    Big number

    0.9. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 1.8-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris 1.7 points higher in his Silver Bulletin prediction.

    How does Harris perform against Trump in swing states?

    Most surveys show Harris leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an advantage in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages. That means Trump would narrowly win if the state-level polls turn out to be exactly right — but all seven swing states are within single digits.

    Surprising fact

    An NBC News poll released on September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is narrowing. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — conducted September 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found that 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who backed Trump and 6% who said they were unsure know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than the lead Democratic candidates have had in the past, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polls and a lead of 50 points in the 2016 polls. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

    How has the debate affected the polls?

    Pre-debate surveys showed Harris’ polling surge appeared to be stalling, including an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters from September 3 to 5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, a decline compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that a majority of voters in each demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris’ debate performance on September 10, with 67% overall saying they liked it did, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris rose 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken just days after the September 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from versus her six-point lead with likely voters. in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos polls — even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.

    Important background

    Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of resisting calls from within his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her during a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls comes with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stagnated on 71%. according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.

    Read more

    New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate, but it largely didn’t change voters’ minds (Forbes)

    Trump’s lead over Biden and Harris widened after RNC, shows HarrisX/Forbes Poll (Forbes)

    Here’s How Kamala Harris Does in Polls Against Trump — While Biden Drops Out and Backs Harris (Forbes)

    Harris’ lead over Trump unchanged after DNC, first poll (Forbes)

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