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Here’s who’s in charge in the key 2024 election battlegrounds
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Here’s who’s in charge in the key 2024 election battlegrounds

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is essentially even, with Harris leading voters in all seven states by just one point and maintaining a slight lead in the Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump narrowly leads lead is in the Southeast and Arizona, but essentially Pennsylvania has to win, it’s a toss-up.

Key facts

Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll from Thursday, a statistical tie — but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there is plenty of room for the race to change.

North Carolina: Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday (4.5 point margin of error), an outlier among several other polls this week showing Trump ahead, including a Fox News poll showing he is up 49%-47% (or 50%-49% without third parties), while leading 50%-48% in surveys released this past week by the Cooperative Election Study, Marist and Emerson College. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 1.2-point lead.

Georgia: Trump has a 48%-47% lead in Thursday’s CNN/SSRS poll (4.7 margin of error), and he has a more substantial 51%-46% lead in the CES poll (2,663 respondents) and 49.9%-48.4% in last week’s Bloomberg survey, although they are at 49% in a Marist survey (margin of error 3.9), and from a Washington Post-Schar survey (margin of error 4.5 ) showed Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Pennsylvania: It couldn’t get any closer — the candidates are at 48% in the Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls released Wednesday, and it’s 49%-49% in a CBS/YouGov poll, and while Trump is 47 %-46 is up % in a Quinnipiac poll and 50%-49% if Fox News eliminates third parties, Harris has a 49%-48% lead in a large Cooperative Election Study survey (3,685 respondents). Monmouth found that Trump is up 47%-46% among all registered voters, but Harris leads 48%-47% among people who vote in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Michigan: Trump holds a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday that shows him up 47%-45%, though three other surveys this week show Harris with a lead, including the Fox News poll showing found it to be 48%-46% higher (although there is a 49% tie without third parties), 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in the CNN/SSRS poll poll – while Trump leads 49%-48% in an Emerson Poll survey released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is 1.1 points higher in Michigan in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris is up 50%-47% over Trump in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in a Marquette poll, while Trump is 49 % has risen to 48% in an Emerson poll and the two candidates are at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is 0.7 points higher than the FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51%-47% in the CES poll (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris is Up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg poll on October 23 (margin of error 5). Harris is 0.1 point higher in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51%-47% in the CES survey (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist survey released October 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post -Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Big number

1.4 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance, dramatically changing Democrats’ fortunes. Prior to the shift, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Read more

Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Maintains Lead in 4 New Polls (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Michigan 2024: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has less than 1 point lead in polling averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Nearly Tied in the New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Polls in Georgia 2024: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead in Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Narrow Lead, But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Wisconsin 2024: Latest surveys show Trump with slight lead (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Arizona 2024: Trump has advantage in latest Swing State poll (Forbes)