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    • Here’s who’s in charge of the 2024 presidential race between Trump and Harris in Nevada
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    Here’s who’s in charge of the 2024 presidential race between Trump and Harris in Nevada

    Vaseline Posted on

    Topline

    Vice President Kamala Harris will score a narrow victory over former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, predicted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

    Key facts

    Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston – CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent , who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of the state’s presidential races — wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the most difficult since I started doing this.”

    Ralston’s prediction comes at a time when Trump and Harris are nearly tied in other Nevada polls: FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point lead.

    Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the latest Emerson College/The Hill pre-election poll on Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters in Nevada was released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

    Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive series of national polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

    Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

    Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3% – essentially a tie – among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released on October 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP poll of likely voters released on October 22 (margin of error 4), while an October 11 Wall Street Journal poll (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point lead.

    Nevada — the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes — has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden defeated Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

    Surprising fact

    A large number of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will move toward Harris, citing a new Democratic-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

    Tangent

    The Republican Party has an edge in ballots returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early counts than ever before,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent, who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators that younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents, however, will favor Harris, which could tilt the vote toward Democrats.

    What to pay attention to

    The state will not release results until after the last voter in line has cast their ballot, when polls close at 10 p.m. EST. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to faster results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by November 9 received, the process could take longer. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

    Big number

    56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, up from 49% in 2024, according to an NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll in September.

    Important background

    Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among key demographic groups. According to CNN exit polls, Biden had a 61% to 35% lead over Trump in Nevada in 2020, while Harris is ahead of Trump in Nevada 56% to 40%, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll among Latino voters. Harris has particular difficulty with Latino men, according to the survey, which found that 53% of male Latino voters ages 18 to 34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35 to 49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of concerns for Latino voters in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

    Tangent

    The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz. against Trump ally Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community locations frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

    Read more

    Trump-Harris polls in Wisconsin 2024: Latest surveys show Trump with slight lead (Forbes)

    Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Maintains Lead in Arizona, While Harris Maintains a Narrow Lead in Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

    Trump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris and Trump nearly tied in latest surveys as race tightens (Forbes)

    Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris polls Michigan 2024: Harris leads in latest survey (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris polls Georgia 2024: Harris has surprising 1-point lead in new survey (Forbes)

    North Carolina Trump-Harris Polls 2024: Trump Overtakes Harris Lead (Forbes)

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