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While President-elect Donald Trump has often promised to protect Social Security, he has not explained exactly how he would save the beloved — but financially troubled — entitlement program. He also failed to take any meaningful steps to strengthen Social Security during his first term in the White House.

Moreover, some of his recent campaign promises — including eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits — could cost seniors a lot of money in the coming years.

Many presidents and presidential candidates have pledged to address the looming Social Security insolvency. According to the latest report from the Social Security Trustees, the program’s trust funds are expected to dry up by 2035 without congressional intervention. After that, payroll tax revenues and other revenues would only be able to cover 83% of the benefits due.

But there’s a reason why the entitlement program is considered the third rail of politics: any politician who dares to implement reforms, whether it’s raising payroll taxes, raising the minimum retirement age or changing the benefit formula, is quickly criticized.

Social Security advocates have feared past Republican proposals to address the program’s problems. Last year, when House Speaker Mike Johnson pledged to form a debt committee, advocates were quick to warn of the risk it would damage benefits many seniors rely on. The Republican Study Committee, which Johnson chaired several years ago, has proposed solutions that advocates say would reduce benefits.

Trump raised concerns in March when he suggested in a CNBC interview that he was open to cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

“There’s a lot you can do on entitlements, on cuts, and also on rights theft and mismanagement,” Trump said. “There’s a huge amount of stuff and a huge number of things you can do.”

His campaign quickly sought to clarify the comments, saying Trump was referring to reducing waste.

Since then, Trump has tried to reinforce his resolve to protect the program. He and the Republican National Committee released a platform in July that indicated it was a top goal if he were to become president.

“FIGHT FOR AND PROTECT SOCIAL SECURITY AND HEALTH CARE WITHOUT DECISIONS, INCLUDING NO CHANGES TO THE RETIREMENT AGE,” the platform reads, although it does not provide details on how Trump and the Republican Party will address the program’s insolvency and associated budget cuts. would address benefits.

During his first administration, Trump focused largely on so-called program integrity, such as reducing improper payments in Social Security disability programs. Although his officials claimed the actions would save billions of dollars, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found the savings negligible, said Charles Blahous, a senior research strategist at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center and a former public trustee for Social Security and Medicare.

Trump’s second stint in the White House is unlikely to yield any significant proposals to address the program’s budget problems, Blahous told CNN.

“The most likely scenario is to avoid, delay and dodge the problem,” he said. “That would result in an even greater certainty of insolvency in a subsequent presidential term.”

Trump and Social Security Taxes

During his campaign, Trump unveiled a series of targeted tax breaks aimed at appealing to key voter groups.

But that agenda would take critical tax revenue away from Social Security trust funds, leaving them without money in 2031 — three years earlier than currently projected by the Congressional Budget Office, according to a recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. an impartial government watchdog. And it would force a roughly 30% cut in benefits unless Congress acts.

As it is now, Social Security does not receive enough tax revenue. As the nation has aged, the number of beneficiaries has increased dramatically, while the number of workers contributing to the system has shrunk.

The Trump campaign lashed out at the commission’s report when it was released last month, saying the watchdog “has been consistently wrong over the years.”

“By unleashing American energy, removing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and restore Social Security to a stronger lay the foundation for generations to come. eliminating Social Security taxes for America’s well-earned seniors,” Karoline Leavitt, then the campaign’s national press secretary, said in a statement at the time.

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Overall, Trump’s platform would reduce revenues going to the entitlement program by about $2.3 trillion over 10 years, the committee found.

The most expensive proposal is eliminating federal income taxes on Social Security benefits. According to the commission, this would reduce the program’s revenues by $950 billion over 10 years.

Currently, about half of beneficiaries – especially those with higher incomes – pay federal income taxes on their Social Security benefits. They owe taxes on their benefits if they earn more than $25,000 per individual, or $32,000 for married couples, in so-called combined income.

Initially, Trump’s measure would benefit those earning between about $63,000 and $206,000, who would see the largest average increase in their share of after-tax income, according to the Tax Policy Center. Those earning more or less wouldn’t see much change, if any.

However, once Social Security trust funds run out of money, lower-income recipients would be hit the hardest. They generally would not qualify for the tax credit, so they would feel the full brunt of the benefit reduction. Marc Goldwein, senior policy director of the commission, said. For better-off recipients, the tax credit would offset at least some of the reduction in benefits.

The president-elect has also pledged to eliminate federal taxes on tips and overtime pay. While he did not provide details on either proposal, he indicated he would eliminate both the income and payroll taxes on tips. These measures would reduce about $900 billion in Social Security revenues, the committee found.

The committee also looked at Trump’s tariffs and immigration measures, which were estimated to cut Social Security revenues by $400 billion over 10 years. The president-elect’s promise to raise rates could lead to higher inflation, which would lead to a larger annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security. And curbing illegal immigration and increasing border security could reduce the number of undocumented immigrants paying into the welfare system.

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