NEW YORK CITY – What’s in store for winter 2024-2025 in the NYC area?

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The Big Apple is preparing for another change in weather patterns after last year’s warmer-than-average winter. According to meteorologists and NOAA’s US Winter Outlook, next winter will likely be influenced by a developing La Niña.

FOX 5 NYs Nick Gregory shared his winter weather outlook for this year, including the potential for a nor’Easter and its snow total forecasts.

First day of winter 2024

Winter officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere on December 21 with the winter solstice – the day with the least amount of daylight and the longest night.

La Niña winter weather report

La Niña occurs when cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean affect global weather patterns. The phenomenon typically produces drier and warmer conditions in the southern US, while regions such as the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast experience cooler and wetter weather.

“A La Niña pattern could lead to above-average temperatures for New York and slightly above-average snowfall,” Gregory said. “Some previous La Nina winters have produced strong northeasters and snowstorms.”

However, this year’s La Niña is expected to be weak and last only until early spring, making its impact on the Tri-State area more uncertain than in stronger La Niña years.

“The coming La Niña is forecast to be quite weak, meaning it could produce the characteristic effects of a more moderate La Niña,” Gregory said.

Will there be a nor’easter this winter?

For New York City and the surrounding region, the La Niña pattern indicates a winter of average to slightly below average temperatures.

“NYC will always see a nor’easter in the winter,” Gregory said. “The problem will be how cold it is when the storm hits the area. A weak La Niña could create a rain/snow battle line right through the NYC area and nearby suburbs.”

How much snow will fall in the NYC area?

Gregory predicts that the city could make ends meet 20 inches snow this winter, compared to the typical seasonal average of 28 inches.

“We will likely have above average temperatures this winter, along with more snow than last year and somewhere around 18-23″ but that is less than the average snowfall for a New York winter,” Gregory said.

Meanwhile, the lower Hudson Valley could see slightly more snow, with totals in between 20 and 25 inches, with more snowfall further north. Much of the winter can bring a mix of rain and snow along the coast, with heavier snow falling further north.

Historically, the first measurable snow (accumulation of one inch or more) usually falls in the New York area. December 13. The earliest measurable snowfall was on October 29, 2011, when 2.9 centimeters fell days before Halloween.

Regional, National Winter Forecasts

NOAA

NOAA’s broader winter outlook highlights wetter-than-average conditions across the northern U.S., especially in the Great Lakes region, where colder temperatures and above-average precipitation are expected. Meanwhile, the southern US will likely experience a drier and warmer winter.

For the tri-state area, the region is expected to be on the edge of these patterns. A weak La Niña often causes storm systems to take a more northerly track, which could leave New York City in the middle of a battle between rain and snow all season long.

The old farmer’s almanac

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a “milder than usual season” that is “not so rough and heavy” in the Interior Northeast.

For the Interstate 95 corridor, which includes the Tri-State area, snowfall is forecast to be below average in the north but above average in the south, with the coldest temperatures in early and late January and late February.

Farmer’s almanac winter 2024

The Farmer’s Almanac says, “Brace for a wet winter whirlwind!” Their annual extended weather forecast calls for a season of rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow.

The list shows a very active storm track that will bring frequent periods of heavy precipitation and strong gusty winds across most of the eastern half of the country.

According to their forecasts, the Northeast will be stormy, with above-normal amounts of winter precipitation and near-above-normal temperatures.

They also predict that the heaviest snowfall will occur in inland and mountainous areas, while sleet and rain will occur on the coast – especially near and along the I-95 corridor.

The Almanac is red flagging the last week of January due to a very active storm track in most of the eastern half of the country.