The 2024 edition of the National League East race marks a major turnaround from last season, when the Atlanta Braves finished 14 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. This year, Philadelphia took control of the division early and has held a solo first-place position every day since May 3.

With the two teams meeting this weekend, let’s take a look at how the Phillies turned the tide against the Braves.

How the Braves Reigned in 2023

Attack 2023: Braves +151 runs (Braves scored 947 runs; Phillies scored 796)

2023 pitching/defense: Phillies +1 run (Phillies allowed 715 runs; Braves allowed 716)

The Braves’ big advantage last season came on the offensive end. That’s no surprise, because the Braves’ offense was one of the best of all time. Atlanta tied an MLB record with 307 home runs and became the first team to hit .500. The Phillies finished fourth in the NL with 796 runs, the most they’d scored since 2009 — but still 151 behind the Braves.

The teams were essentially evenly matched in run prevention, with Atlanta allowing just one more run. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola gave the Phillies one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, while the Braves got expected strong performances from Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton, along with a breakout from Bryce Elder.

What has changed in the off-season?

Interestingly, the Braves had the most active offseason despite their better record in 2023. They traded Jarred Kelenic to replace free-agent left fielder Eddie Rosario, then added depth to the rotation by acquiring Chris Sale from the Red Sox and signing Reynaldo Lopez as a free agent (with the idea of ​​moving him from the bullpen to a starting role).

The Phillies’ biggest move wasn’t a roster upgrade, as they re-signed Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract. They did make a move to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but when the Dodgers ultimately won that bidding war, the Phillies spent that money on … Whit Merrifield.

If you do the math, 10 runs is worth about one win, so the Braves’ 150-run differential explains how they were 14 wins better in 2023. How would the Phillies make up for that with essentially the same roster? They’d have to play better and hope the Braves regress.

At the start of the season, most predictions still favored the Braves and their seemingly all-powerful lineup. Twenty-four of the 26 voters in our predictions picked the Braves to win the division. My colleague Bradford Doolittle’s prediction had the Braves as the best team in baseball with 105 wins; the Phillies were No. 5 with 88 wins. FanGraphs saw a similar gap, predicting the Braves with 98 wins and the Phillies with 85.

How the Phillies Turned the Tide in 2024

Offense 2024: Phillies +66 runs (Phillies scored 653 runs; Atlanta scored 587)

2024 pitching/defense: Braves +25 runs (Atlanta has allowed 522 runs; Phillies have allowed 547)

The Phillies hold a 41-run lead in the run differential this season and a five-game lead in the NL East.

The Braves have outperformed the Phillies this year in terms of pitching and defense, however. Sale and Lopez have proven to be two of the best moves a team has made this offseason, making up for the loss of Strider. Sale is the clear NL Cy Young front-runner, as he is 15-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 197 strikeouts, leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts. Lopez is 7-4 with a 2.02 ERA in 21 starts.

So, since the Braves are about two wins better than the Phillies in pitching, we need to find about 20 wins that the Phillies have made up for in offense. And yes, most of that is the Braves completely falling apart at the plate. They are ninth in the NL in runs scored, on their way to scoring 701 runs — 246 fewer than last season.

The Phillies are on pace to score 787 runs, nearly equal to last season’s 796. While Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are better in 2024 (a combined average of about 13 runs better), others like Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh are worse (a combined average of about 24 runs worse).

So … Atlanta’s offense. Sure, the season-ending injury to reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. has been a big factor in this. He also wasn’t off to a great start before tearing his ACL, so Braves right fielders have hit .235/.308/.402 with 20 home runs, compared to .332/.408/.587 with 42 home runs a season ago. Acuna has created about 62 more runs than the average hitter in 2023. This season, Braves right fielders are about a run better than average. Using our 10-run metric, that’s one win metric, which is about six wins worse.

Matt Olson was a superstar in Atlanta’s lineup last season when he finished fourth in NL MVP voting. He’s played every game again this season, but hasn’t been able to repeat his 54-homer feat. He’s about 48 runs worse — or five more wins.

This trend continues in the lineup, with the difference between the two teams narrowing as one Atlanta player is eliminated each year.

Ozzie Albies: 18 runs off (That’s two more wins)

Sean Murphy: 18 runs worse (two more)

Austin Riley: Down 14 Runs (Another win plus erased Atlanta’s advantage)

Orlando Arcia: 14 runs worse (and another)

Michael Harris II: 13 Runs Worse (And Another)

Kelenic: 6 runs worse than Rosario (Unlike Sale and Lopez, this move didn’t really pay off)

There are two big improvements in Atlanta’s lineup: Marcell Ozuna (up 12 runs) and Travis d’Arnaud (up 10 runs). But that pairing wasn’t enough to offset the steps in the wrong direction.

Add it all up and we get 17, including right field and Olson. Yes, injuries to Albies, Harris and Riley (who is likely out for the rest of the season) played a role. But none of those three had matched last year’s performance on the field. Add in poor performances from a few bench players and we get about 20 fewer wins on offense.

This is not to minimize what Philly has done, of course. The Phillies are also slightly better than they were last season: entering Friday’s game, they are on pace for 96 wins, a six-win improvement over last year’s 90-72 finish. Much of that is due to the pitching side of things (Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez are all better than they were a season ago), but Atlanta’s pitching is also better than it was.

Remarkably, though, this race isn’t over yet. Entering Saturday’s game, the Phillies are just 17-22 in the second half and 34-37 since June 9. As talented and star-studded as the Phillies are, they should have beaten the Braves by now, but they haven’t. The Braves will need to at least split this series to move within five games of the division, and the teams won’t meet again. The odds are heavily in favor of the Phillies to win the division (around 90 percent), and it’s clear now how Philadelphia built that advantage — but the door is open just enough to make September potentially interesting in the NL East.