ORLANDO – The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday lowered its forecast that an Atlantic system approaching the Caribbean will develop into the next tropical depression or storm of the season, while also monitoring a second system already in the Caribbean area is located.

From the NHC’s tropical outlook at 8 a.m., the broad area of ​​low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic produced disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive to gradual development during the latter part of this week,” forecasters said. “A tropical depression could form as the system approaches the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.”

The NHC gives it a 30% chance of developing in two days and 40% in the next seven days.

That is less than the 60% predicted earlier this week.

If it were to develop enough, it could become Tropical Storm Nadine.

The NHC also tracked a broad area of ​​low pressure with showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

“Some gradual development is possible if the system remains above water as it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America,” forecasters said. “Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America later this week.”

The NHC gives it a 10% chance of developing in the next two days, and 20% in the next seven days.

The Colorado State University two-week forecast expects hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean to likely be above normal.

“There are some signs of potential development in the western Caribbean later in week two,” said CSU meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced thirteen named storms, nine of which were hurricanes, including three that struck Florida.

The hurricane season runs until November 30.

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