Wednesday afternoon, October 9, 2024

The latest update shows Hurricane Milton with winds of 130 mph about 150 miles southwest of Tampa. This is a weaker Category 3 storm and will continue to decrease in intensity, with the strongest winds spreading over a larger area as it gets closer to land. It is moving at a speed of 16 miles per hour and is expected to make landfall between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. There are some important things I hope you share with us.

The term ‘degraded’ intensity is misleading…I can’t say this enough:

Water and waves will carry with them the memory of the time when it was a Category 5 ship on land. So whether it is Cat 3 or 4 is negligible at this point. It will expand to cover a larger area.

The wind field has already EXPANDED to 400 kilometers from the center.

I’ve marked the eye landfall south of Tampa. The worst will be south of landfall, but it will still be VERY BAD in and around Tampa. Even if they miss the worst wave, they may be on the edge of the eyewall.

There will be some fluctuations in the path, but with the current track the landfall appears to be between Sarasota and Venice.

It will still be a hurricane Thursday morning as it leaves the East Coast and into the Atlantic Ocean.

In this report: satellite loops, landing maps, local storm surge plots, live radar, new model maps and warnings.

Doppler radar at 2 p.m

Infrared satellite at 2pm EDT

The eye was located 150 miles from Tampa.

Heading northeast at 16 mph…. It will travel faster as it gets closer.

Wind damage

Hurricane Force Winds: Extend 30 miles from center
Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 250 miles from center.

The highest storm surge will occur at the landfalling eyewall AND on the right/south side. New Surge cards are below.

TORNADO RISK

Multiple tornadoes will occur across the state. There was previously a possible tornado near Miami in Dade County and two in western Broward County.

STORM TRACK: Continue with landfall near Siesta Key and exit the Atlantic Ocean near Melbourne. It takes 10 to 12 hours to cross the state.

Winds of hurricane force can be carry the storm all the way to the Atlantic coast.

National Hurricane Center SUMMARY AS OF 2:00 PM EDT

• LOCATION…26.3N 84.0W
• APPROXIMATELY 130 MI…210 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
• APPROXIMATELY 150 MI…240 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KPH
• CURRENT MOTION…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KPH
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…944 MB…27.88 INCHES

Visible satellite loop

IR satellite loop

LIVE RADAR widget

National Hurricane Center forecast track

Hyper-local looks with peak heights underneath

There will be some fluctuations, but the region between Sarasota and Venice.

Tornado Outlook

Tornadoes are common during landfalling tropical cyclones. This can happen hundreds of kilometers from the center in the outer bands and has already happened today. This affects much of the state of Florida.

Floods

Saltwater floods is a storm surge. Six inches of water can move a person, and 12 inches of water can move an SUV or truck. The forecast is 10 to 15 feet in the worst areas, which will push well inland.

Freshwater flooding is caused by rain. The precipitation rate can be up to 3 centimeters per hour. The forecast has a total of 9 to 12 inches or higher in the trail and north of the eye track. Some of these areas are already 2 feet (24”) above the year’s rainfall and have been very wet over the past two weeks.

Forecast adjustment:

The visibility change also shifted the location of landfall about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south… which could cause a dramatic change in coastal wave expectations.

See NEW CLOSE-UP Storm Surge Maps below.

The trail still points just south of Tampa Bay

These local maps are a guide and NOT A PROMISE. This could still shift 30 to 50 miles in either direction.

Take a closer look at the water level forecasts

Southwest Florida: More than 100 miles away

Storm surge forecast

• Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL…10-15 ft
• Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL… 8-12 ft
• Tampa Bay… 8 to 12 feet
• Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…8-12 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…8-12 ft
• Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…5-8 ft
• Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL…3-5 ft
• Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
• Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 ft
• Altamaha Sound, GO to Edisto Beach, SC… 2-4 ft
• Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL…2-4 ft
• Dry Tortugas… 2-4 ft
• St. Johns River… 2-4 ft

HAFS Model animation: Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning

This has done a good job as a leader in track alignment.

Landfall forecast

This tends towards 10pm to 11pm.

GFS model Landfall forecast

GFS model animation: Wednesday morning to Friday morning

Precipitation forecast

Freshwater flooding is likely more than 10 to 12 inches along and just north of the trail.

Models have difficulty with tropical rain bands and the results are often higher.

OVERVIEW OF APPLICABLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

A storm surge warning is in force for…

* West coast of Florida, from Flamingo north to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River

A hurricane warning is in effect for…

* West coast of Florida, from Bonita Beach north to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

* East Coast of Florida from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line north to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Warning is in force for…

* North from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A hurricane watch is in effect for…

* Dry Tortugas

*Lake Okeechobee

* West coast of Florida, from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

* East coast of Florida, north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River

* East Coast of Florida, from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

*Lake Okeechobee

* West coast of Florida, from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

* West coast of Florida, from north of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

* East Coast of Florida, south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River

* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina

Summary of the 2024 Atlantic tropical season so far:

Called storms

1. Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaks as a tropical storm
2. Beryl June 28 11; Peaked as a Cat 5 hurricane
3. Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaks as a tropical storm
4. Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 hurricane
5. Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked as a Cat 2 hurricane
6. Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked as a Cat 2 hurricane
7. Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical storm
8. Helene September 24 to 27; Cat 4 hurricane. Landfall with wind speeds of 230 km per hour
9. Joyce September 27 to 30; Tropical storm
10. Kirk September 29 to ; Cat 4 hurricane: Ocean with winds of 230 km/h
11. Leslie October 2 to ; Cat 1 hurricane
12. Milton October 5 to