CNN
—

Hurricane Rafael is rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean and is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane before hitting Cuba on Wednesday.

As of Wednesday morning, Rafael was a Category 2 storm with winds of 180 km/h (just 1 km/h away from Category 3 status) and 210 km from Cuba.

The storm’s winds have increased by 80 km/h in the past 24 hours, an increase well above the 55 km/h needed for rapid intensification. Rapid intensification is becoming more common as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution; Rafael is the ninth storm to rapidly intensify in the Atlantic Basin this year.

After moving through the Caribbean, the powerful hurricane is expected to encounter some serious resistance in the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall as a much weaker storm this weekend, from the US Gulf Coast to northeastern Mexico.

What, if any, threat Rafael poses to the Gulf Coast is still unclear, but it is emerging, and a more confident forecast will be possible once the storm enters the Gulf on Thursday.

Rafael’s threat to Cuba is clear: it is expected to deliver a devastating blow as the first Category 3 hurricane to hit the country since Ian in 2022.

Heavy rains from the hurricane spread across Cuba on Wednesday morning and will flood the country on Thursday. Double-digit rain totals are possible. Tropical storm-force winds were near the country’s southern coast early Wednesday. These winds and stronger hurricane force winds will spread across Cuba in the coming hours.

Raphael’s powerful winds also created dangerous seas and could produce a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) off Cuba’s southern coast before landfall.

This is the second blow from a hurricane to Cuba in recent weeks. Hurricane Oscar devastated Cuba in late October, killing at least six people. The country’s power grid is also vulnerable and has collapsed several times, including when Oscar struck in October.

Rafael could become the fifth major hurricane – a Category 3 or stronger hurricane – of the season. It is the strongest hurricane to hit the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009, according to NOAA data.

It is expected to be only the fifth hurricane to hit the Gulf of Mexico in November, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Rafael’s potential route through the Gulf of Mexico later this week and over the weekend is slowly coming into focus, but is far from certain.

Rafael could still become the sixth named storm to hit the US this season, but the risk areas are gradually narrowing.

Earlier this week, forecast models outlined very different possible paths for Rafael, but these models are starting to get closer to a solution. Instead of a steady northwestward track across the Gulf and landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, two major forecast models more consistently show a significant westward shift.

The current forecast from the hurricane center indicates that Rafael could potentially impact anywhere from Louisiana to northeastern Mexico, west of initial predictions that Alabama and the Florida Panhandle were in danger.

“If future model runs continue to show this trend … additional leftward adjustment of the NHC track may be necessary,” the center said Wednesday.

Upper level storm disruptive winds are likely to severely deteriorate Rafael as the storm gets closer to the U.S. coastline, regardless of where that is. Current forecasts call for Rafael to return to tropical storm status this weekend.

Rafael’s U.S. impact could be limited, but the same robust tropical moisture that fueled the storm Wednesday will fuel heavy rainfall across the Southeast.

There is a widespread area of ​​a level 2 of 4 flood risk for parts of South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama on Wednesday, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Smaller parts of Georgia and South Carolina are at risk of Level 3 or 4 flooding.

Bursts of rain can cause dangerous flash floods, but some areas may flood slowly given the dryness of much of the ground after a record-breaking October.

CNN’s Brandon Miller, José Álvarez, Patrick Oppmann and Michael Rios contributed to this report.