Maps from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) show Hurricane Rafael’s predicted impact on the US as the storm rages in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday evening as a category 3 hurricane. Wind speeds have since dropped to 100 miles per hour, making it a Category 2 hurricane as it begins a long trek across the Gulf. The latest forecasts call for Rafael to move west and maintain hurricane strength until Saturday morning, after which the hurricane will likely weaken to a tropical storm.

The forecast is a shift from earlier this week, when meteorologists expected Rafael to target Louisiana. The storm’s track then shifted toward Texas and has since shifted further south. So the storm is unlikely to make landfall directly in the US, given current forecasts.

Tropical Storm Warnings in Florida Keys

However, the indirect consequences have already begun. Tropical storm conditions were expected in the Florida Keys Wednesday night, with the threat of coastal flooding and heavy rain. The warnings were discontinued Thursday morning, the NWS office in Key West said, although isolated showers were still expected Thursday.

A hurricane warning remains in effect in the waters off the coast of Florida, and a small craft advisory warns boaters not to venture into the waters off the Florida Keys.

American beaches expect dangerous currents

Alabama and the Florida Panhandle expect dangerous ocean conditions and rip currents caused by the storm, NWS meteorologist David Reese said Newsweek. A coastal hazard notice has been issued for coastal beaches near Mobile, Alabama, and Tallahassee, Florida, and will remain in place throughout the weekend. Rip currents and dangerous waves could cause beaches to close this weekend, and Reese advised beachgoers to make note of beach flags for any closures.

“The swell generated by Rafael is expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days,” the NHC warned. “These swells are likely to create life-threatening surf and current conditions.”

Wind-related impact in the US

There is also a small risk of tropical storm force winds in some coastal areas, the NHC warned. A map from the NHC showed a low probability that the coast of Louisiana and a portion of Texas would experience tropical storm force winds, which occur when winds exceed 60 km per hour.

“Rafael is expected to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week,” the NHC said. “Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.”

It’s unclear if any rain associated with the storm will reach the U.S. beyond what has already fallen in the Florida Keys. The latest NHC precipitation maps warn of additional rain over Cuba on Thursday and the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend.