Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba at Category 3 intensity and will then pass over the Florida Keys as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, where weakening should begin due to multiple atmospheric and oceanic factors.

(​PERSPECTIVE: Seasons that have reached 11 hurricanes)

Landing: Hurricane Rafael strengthened to a Category 3 with winds of 115 miles per hour early Wednesday afternoon, then made landfall just over three hours later in the western Cuban province of Artemisa near Playa Majana, according to the National Hurricane Center. Wind gusts of more than 120 kilometers per hour have been reported in the Cuban capital Havana.

Rafael is the fifth Category 3 or stronger hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean this season, joining Beryl, Helene, Kirk and Milton.

Impact on Cuba and Florida Keys: Western Cuba can expect hurricane conditions (winds of 75 miles per hour or higher) and life-threatening storm surges Wednesday evening. Heavy rains can also cause flash floods and mudslides in parts of Cuba.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

Rafael’s future in the Gulf: Rafael is expected to turn west and weaken in the Gulf next, as it will likely encounter increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air and some cooler water from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael could move slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend and into early next week.

Chances are increasing that if Rafael stays far enough south, it could maintain some momentum and eventually drift southwest toward Mexico’s Gulf Coast next week.

There remains a chance that Rafael in a much weakened form will either be pulled into the northern Gulf Coast or disappear completely into the western Gulf next week.

(​MORE: Why Rafael isn’t expected to be another Helene or Milton)

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