Hurricane Rafael will enter the Gulf of Mexico and while that sounds unnerving, we don’t predict it will be anywhere near the magnitude of Helene or Milton’s impacts.

The current forecast: The most recent forecast track of this system from the National Hurricane Center is shown in the forecast chart below. It is currently in the western Caribbean Sea, but is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday as Hurricane Rafael.

If you look closely at that graph you may see that the forecast winds are not as high as we saw at Helene and Milton. You may also notice that the forecast winds decrease at the end of the cone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

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Why Rafael should eventually weaken: To be clear, Rafael could have some significant impacts in the western Caribbean Sea.

But as it moves toward the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, conditions are expected to arise that will weaken it rather than strengthen it. That’s an environment more typical of November than the peak of hurricane season.

Wind shear: Forecast models suggest that wind shear will increase over Rafael once it moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This increasing difference in wind speed and/or direction with height causes a tropical cyclone to overturn, disrupting the heat engine that sustains it. If the shear is strong enough, it can blow thunderstorms away from the center, marking the system’s final demise.

Dry air: The same forecast models suggest Rafael could draw in dry air as it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Dry, sinking air disrupts tropical storms and hurricanes by suppressing thunderstorms and strengthening the downdrafts of storms that may form.

Golf not nearly as steamy: While there is still enough deep, warm water in the Caribbean Sea to support an intensifying storm, that warmth is decreasing significantly in the central and northern Gulf, as you can see in the map below.

Although still higher than usual in early November, ocean heat content in Gulf waters is now about half of what it was when it broke records from late August to early October. All other factors being equal, more ocean heat will support stronger hurricanes.

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Not Helene, nor Milton: In late September, Hurricane Helene was perfectly positioned to rapidly intensify before making landfall.

As nicely explained by NOAA meteorologist Tomer Burg at It also moved over extremely warm Gulf waters, allowing it to quickly intensify to Cat. 4 status before landfall. A rotating upper level layer centered over western Kentucky pulled Helene’s heavy rain and damaging winds well inland.

Hurricane Milton experienced some shear and dry air before making landfall in Florida. But that was after the hurricane rapidly intensified over the extremely warm southern Gulf waters into one of the most intense hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

And you could say that Milton’s tornadoes — a record number for any outbreak in Florida — were the most memorable aspect of that hurricane.

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Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at Weather.com and has been covering national and international weather reports since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite subjects. Contact him X (formerly Twitter), Wires, Facebook And Blue sky.