64 min: Tómasson wins a ball down the left and powers down the wing. His low cross is meant for Óskarsson, who goes over under a challenge from Cooper, but there’s no way it’s a penalty. Iceland have another go, and this time Gudjohnsen slices a shot wide left.

62 min: The best form of defence is attack, and Cooper whistles a vicious daisy-cutter towards the bottom-left corner, forcing Valdimarsson to turn around the post. Nothing comes of the resulting corner, but that’s better from Wales.

60 min: Wales fail to clear the resulting free kick properly, allowing Gudmundsson the chance to slash a shot wide right from the edge of the box. Wales are finding it difficult to suppress Iceland’s second-half … what’s the word? … hwyl.

59 min: James is booked for sliding in on Gudmundsson. Studs on shin. There didn’t seem much malice in the challenge, but the Wales midfielder was slightly out of control. He’s fortunate the referee looks on him favourably. Others may have brandished red.

57 min: Wales are rattled. Suddenly passes aren’t sticking, balls shanked out of play. On the touchline, Craig Bellamy looks concerned. Thórdarson launches another long throw into the mixer. Moore draws a foul from someone in the packed box, and the pressure is momentarily released.

55 min: Thorsteinsson takes down a poor Welsh clearance and attempts to barge his way clear down the inside-left channel. He can’t get a shot away, and is then adjudged to have handled. The whistle goes. But then Iceland come again, the livewire Óskarsson taking down a right-wing cross and spinning on a sixpence before launching a shot towards the top right. Ward catches spectacularly at full stretch. How on earth have Iceland not at least reduced their arrears?

53 min: Óskarsson has come alive. He juggles the ball on the edge of the D to thoroughly confuse Davies, before slipping another pass wide right, again for Ellertsson, who again is free. And again he cocks it up, leaning back and shovelling hysterically over the bar. Somewhere in a parallel universe, it’s 3-2 to Iceland. They’ve come flying out of the blocks after the break.

52 min: Iceland have clearly been given the hairdryer treatment at half-time, and not just because of the temperature in Reykjavik. Moore attempts to fight fire with fire and is booked for clattering Ingason in mid-air.

50 min: Iceland should be back in it. Óskarsson, on the edge of the Wales D, slips a pass to his right for Ellertsson. He’s clear, but instead of slotting with his right, opts to use his left peg instead, twisting his body uncomfortably before slamming the shot inches wide. What a chance! And it nearly doesn’t matter, with Óskarsson taking matters into his own hands soon after the restart, dribbling down the inside-right channel and making enough space to batter a rising shot past Ward but off the top of the bar.

48 min: Thórdarson launches a long throw into the Wales mixer from the right. Rodon, having taken an almighty run-up to meet the dropping ball, smashes a clearing header miles up the park. That was no-nonsense defending 101.

47 min: Williams is after another assist, and he crosses from a deep position on the left in the hope of locating Moore in the box. His accuracy is all out of whack this time.

Wales get the second half underway. Iceland have made two changes, replacing Finnsson and Willumsson with Tómasson and Ellertsson, while Wales have sent on Burns in place of Johnson. Incidentally, in the other match in Group B4, it was goalless at half-time between Turkey and Montenegro. As things stand, Wales will go two points clear of Turkey at the top of the table.

Half-time reading. One bit of news that wouldn’t have reached the UK last year was the sad passing of Bjarni Felixson, the legendary and much-loved RÚV commentator, who died at the age of 86. I was fortunate enough to interview this true gentleman a few years ago, so it’s only right we mark his passing in this journal for the record. Here’s his story if you missed it the first time around. Go well, Bjarni Fel.

HALF TIME: Iceland 0-2 Wales

45 min: There will be one additional minute. “Did Micheal Sheen give the pre-game hype speech again?” wonders Mary Waltz. “Wales looks inspired.”

43 min: Wilson drops deep and slips a pass down the middle to release Thomas, who can neither force the ball past Valdimarsson nor take it around him. If only Wilson could have got on the end of his own pass.

41 min: Roberts is booked for … well, that’s not very clear either. A bit too much yap? Delaying the restart? Speaking of running one’s mouth off, Craig Bellamy responds to the decision by hollering “That’s fucking criminal!” clearly and at a volume that rings around all of Wales thanks to the S4C microphones. The wonders of modern technology.

39 min: Thorsteinsson and Willumsson combine to win a long ball down the middle and tee up Gudmundsson on the edge of the Wales box. Gudmundsson shoots fiercely, but the shot’s deflected over the bar, and the flag then pops up anyway. Offside or a foul? Not sure, to be frank, but sometimes the details don’t make much difference. We play on. “Wales look well defined, clear plan and structure,” says David Bowen. “Incredibly, it looks like 3-2-5 in possession and after a few years of fairly turgid tactics, it’s a breath of fresh air. Neco Williams having the five minutes of his life also helps.”

37 min: Gudmundsson aims the free kick for the top-right corner. Over the wall and over the bar. Not a million miles away, but always going over, and Ward had it covered anyway.

36 min: Davies is spun with unfortunate ease down the inside-right channel by Óskarsson, the Iceland striker displaying some delightful skill with a dragback and swivel. A free kick just to the right of the Welsh D. The captain Gudmundsson to take.

34 min: That booking means Williams will miss the home game against Montenegro on Monday night.

32 min: Before the goal kick can be taken, Thorsteinsson, holding onto the ball, has it knocked out of his hand from behind by Johnson. Thorsteinsson takes umbrage, and a handful of Johnson’s shirt. Johnson responds with a shove, flattening his opponent with suspicious ease, and goes into the book.

31 min: Iceland nearly hit back immediately! Finnsson is sent into the Welsh box down the inside-left channel. He reaches the byline and cuts back for Gudjohnsen, who slams goalwards from the left-hand corner of the six-yard box towards the bottom right. It’s surely a goal, with Ward beaten, but that man Neco Williams is on hand to hook off the line! The ball eventually pings off a blue shirt and out for a goal kick.

GOAL! Iceland 0-2 Wales (Wilson 29)

28 min: Thórdarson is booked for hanging out a leg, flush on the horizontal, to stop an in-flight Williams. His boot catches the poor Welsh defender plumb in the Necos. Ooyah, oof, that’s gotta hurt.

27 min: … nothing much occurs. But the little success Iceland have had in attack has come down their left flank.

26 min: Johnson crosses from the right for Moore, who can’t get a header on target. Iceland break up the other end, Thorsteinsson feeding Óskarsson down the left. Óskarsson wins a corner, from which …

24 min: Wilson drops a shoulder to make some space down the inside-right channel and has a dig. His shot is deflected off Ingason and wrong-foots Valdimarsson, who is rooted to the spot. But the ball twangs off the base of the right-hand post and away. So close to a second for Wales.

23 min: Wales stroke it around in pretty triangles. The aesthete in the dugout will be delighted.

21 min: Thórdarson flays a ridiculous shot several miles over the bar from the best part of 30 yards. It’s a bit early for this type of desperation, though having said that Iceland have to date achieved the square root of nix in the final third, so in that context the lottery-ticket purchase isn’t quite so outrageous.

20 min: Wilson and Thorsteinsson come together while competing for a 50-50. The former winds the latter. It takes a wee while for the Icelandic forward to get back up, but he does eventually.

19 min: Johnson swings a low cross in from the right. Moore attempts to hook it home from six yards, but can’t quite get enough purchase on his effort and it’s an easy claim for Valdimarsson in the Iceland goal.

17 min: Thorsteinsson and Finnsson briefly threaten to combine dangerously down the left, but hesitate and are forced to turn tail. The former eventually sprays a wild deep cross out for a goal kick.

16 min: Willumsson hassles Davies, who faffs around with the ball at his feet in his own box, but the pressure only leads to a goal kick. Iceland haven’t put together much of a response.

14 min: Well that sparked the match into life. Absolutely nothing had occurred up until that point, but suddenly Craig Bellamy’s Entertainers sprang into life. What a show!

13 min: That was a hell of a pass by Williams, dropping perfectly to Wilson, who had timed his run to the nanosecond, splitting the Icelandic offside trap.

GOAL! Iceland 0-1 Wales (Johnson 11)

10 min: Wales pass it around the back awhile to no great effect. This match hasn’t really got going yet.

8 min: Gudjohnsen pops up on the other flank and he’s got men in the middle, but he can’t find them because Roberts, currently stuck to him like glue, cuts out the cross. That’s good play all round.

7 min: Gudjohnsen takes issue with Roberts stopping a quick throw. Again, this all happens near the halfway line, and the referee can’t be bothered to get involved.

5 min: Other than Thorsteinsson’s aforementioned drive down the left, absolutely nothing of note has happened yet.

3 min: Thorsteinsson wins the first corner of the match with a determined run down the left channel. He takes it himself. Rodon, in the thick of it early doors, heads powerfully clear.

2 min: A fairly scrappy start. Rodon clatters into Óskarsson, a garden-variety foul in the midfield which for some reason highly amuses Åge Fridtjof Hareide. A jolly smile spreads across his face.

Iceland get the ball rolling. As befits the nomenclature, it’s below zero.

The teams are out! Iceland in blue, Wales in red, all the requisite forms hopefully filled out correctly, and in triplicate. We’ll be off in a minute!

As for the Welsh under-21s, there’s been a bit of a cock-up on the organisational front. Six players of the squad – Cardiff’s Rubin Colwill, Blackburn’s Owen Beck, Wolves’ Lewys Benjamin, Sheffield United’s Owen Hampson, Villanovense’s Josh Farrell and Brighton’s Ed Turns – were deemed ineligible to play in this afternoon’s crucial Euro U21 qualifier with Czechia due to what the FAW have described as (squints, adjusts pince-nez) an “administrative error”. Wales have gone on to lose the match 2-1, and blow the chance of automatic qualification by either finishing top or being one of the best runners-up. Now they’ll not even make the qualification play-offs should the Czechs beat Lithuania at home on Tuesday. Anyway, any old excuse …

A reminder of how Group B4 stands before kick-off tonight. Turkey host Montenegro in Samsun in the other match.

1. Turkey P2 W1 D1 L0 F3 A1 Pts 4

2. Wales P2 W1 D1 L0 F2 A1 Pts 4

3. Iceland P2 W1 D0 L1 F3 A3 Pts 3

4. Montenegro P2 W0 D0 L2 F1 A4 Pts 0

Craig Bellamy speaks to S4C: “We’ve tried to pick the team that has the best chance of giving us a positive result tonight … we have a strong bench … we do have a game on Monday as well … transitions and set plays, they are very useful … we have to be switched on … it’s a great opportunity for us to hit home the players’ ideas and the identity we want from the team … are we good without the ball? … are we organised? … are we able to control the tempo? … difficult to do away from home … they are key elements of the game.”

Iceland’s midfield includes Willum Thor Willumsson of Birmingham City and Stefán Teitur Thórdarson of Preston North End. Brentford reserve keeper Hakon Rafn Valdimarsson starts in goal. Victor Pálsson of Plymouth Argyle and Alfons Sampsted of Birmingham are on the bench alongside Gylfi Sigurdsson, formerly of Swansea, Tottenham and Everton. Fiorentina forward Albert Guðmundsson was cleared of sexual assault charges by a Reykjavik court yesterday; he’s eligible to play but not named in Åge Fridtjof Hareide’s matchday squad.

Iceland have won their last two matches at home: 4-0 against Liechtenstein in Euro 2024 qualifying last October, and 2-0 against Montenegro in this Nations League group last month. If they win this one tonight, it’ll be the first time they’ve won three home fixtures in a row since 2019. Should the Welsh win, they’ll register their first back-to-back away victories since 2020.

History suggests Wales are more likely to extend their run. They’ve won each of their last four matches against Iceland, the most recent in 2014. By contrast, Iceland have only beaten Wales once in seven meetings, back in 1984. Should Wales win tonight, it’ll only be the third time in history that they’ll have won five successive matches against the same opponent: Wales have clocked up five in a row against Azerbaijan (2005-2019) and six against Luxembourg (1974-2010).

Wales make four changes to the starting XI named for the 2-1 win in Montenegro last month. Danny Ward, Brennan Johnson, Jordan James and Sorba Thomas replaces Karl Darlow, Lewis Koumas, Chris Mepham and the injured Ethan Ampadu. Aaron Ramsey and Daniel James are also missing because of injury; Ben Davies will wear the captain’s armband in Ramsey’s absence.

The teams

Preamble