Two swing districts in New York appear to be divided as first-term Republican Party incumbents battle to keep their seats in the House of Representatives.

Republican Rep. Nick LaLota has a three-point lead over Democratic challenger, former CNN anchor John Avlon, in New York’s 1st Congressional District, which includes most of Suffolk County in eastern Long Island. LaLota has 47% support, while Avlon has 44%, according to a new Newsday/Siena College poll.

Representative Anthony D’Esposito, the first-term Republican who represents New York’s 4th Congressional District, which includes central and southern Nassau County on Long Island, is trailing by 12 percentage points. The poll found that 53% of likely voters in the district support Democratic challenger, former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, while 41% support D’Esposito, who previously served on the Hempstead City Council.

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Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., arrives for a meeting of Republicans on Capitol Hill on Oct. 24, 2023. D’Esposito is the Republican candidate in New York’s District 4. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Their race is a rematch from 2022, when D’Esposito took a narrow victory over Gillen by four points.

The majority of voters in the 1st Congressional District, which includes the Hamptons and rural farmlands, supported former President Donald Trump in 2020 and 2016, and Avlon faced questions about the extent of his stay in the district. According to the Fox News Power Ranking, the race moved from leaning Republican to likely Republican.

Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y., speaks during a news conference, July 14, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. LaLota is the Republican candidate in New York’s 1st District. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

Vice President Kamala Harris is one percentage point ahead of Trump in LaLota’s district, according to the Newsday/Siena College poll. In D’Esposito’s district, the poll shows Harris with a lead over Trump, 54-42%.

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Laura Gillen, Democratic candidate for New York’s 4th Congressional District, attends a campaign rally with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., on Thursday, October 17, 2024, in Hempstead, New York. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat who has represented New York since 2009, leads in both districts. The poll also found that 55% of likely voters in New York’s 1st District and 49% of likely voters in New York’s 4th District view Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul unfavorably. Hochul will not be eligible for re-election until 2026.

John Avlon attends The Future Of Democracy with Garry Kasparov and John Avlon at the 92NY, New York on May 14, 2023 in New York City. (Jason Mendez/Getty Images)

Eleven districts within 90 miles of Manhattan are expected to be among the nation’s most closely contested House races on Election Day and could decide which party controls the U.S. House.

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The nearly continuous circle starts in the suburbs of Long Island, cuts through Connecticut and New York’s Hudson River Valley, then cuts through eastern Pennsylvania before returning to New Jersey. Trump struggled in the area outside New York City in 2020, but Republicans scored victories there in the 2022 midterm elections.

Remy Numa of Fox News and The Associated Press contributed to this report.