Iran is likely to see a major change in leadership this year, amid escalating tensions with Israel and the looming threat of a broader war in the Middle East. Speculative reports suggest that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has fallen into a coma and remains ‘critically ill’. Officials are said to have chosen a successor for the 85-year-old during a secret meeting last month.

According to reports, Tehran secretly chose his successor in late September – with ailing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei possibly abdicating before his death. A report from Iran International shows that his son Mojtaba Khamenei will take the top role as long as his father is alive.

Several social media posts now claim that Khamenei has fallen into a coma – despite no official confirmation on his health. The Iranian leader was last seen on November 7 when he addressed the sixth session of the Assembly of Experts of the Leadership within Imam Khomeini Hussainiyah. Before that, he had met university students in Tehran on the occasion of Students’ Day on November 2.

Sixty members of Iran’s Assembly of Experts reportedly met secretly on September 26 to agree to a request from Khamenei. They were instructed to make a decision on the succession immediately and in complete confidentiality. The candidate and the procedure have both met resistance and reports suggest Khamenei and his representatives have also made direct threats. The need for secrecy was also fueled by the possibility of widespread public protests.

A New York Times report on October 27 also supported this claim – claiming that Khamenei was suffering from a serious medical condition and repeating the claim that his son Mojtaba would become the successor.

Khamenei was president of Iran when he took over as Supreme Leader in 1989. He is the longest serving head of state in the Middle East. Mojtaba has taken on an increasingly central role in Iranian decisions, outshining major candidates such as the late President Ebrahim Raisi. His appointment has now become somewhat of a foregone conclusion, despite his lack of experience and the fact that he does not participate in formal government functions.

Source-based reports suggested that Khamenei wants to step down and hand over the government during his lifetime to ensure a smooth transition – anticipating the expected opposition and protests that could arise after his death.