For a team that entered the season as the favorite to win the AFC East for the first time since 1999, the New York Jets find themselves at a key crossroads as they prepare to face the Buffalo Bills in a key divisional battle on Monday night.

The franchise sent shockwaves through the locker room and the NFL last Tuesday when it fired coach Robert Saleh and replaced him with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich in the interim lead role. This move could have numerous ramifications for the team’s future, and when they return to action on “Monday Night Football,” they will test the idea of ​​teams potentially playing each other. better the week after a coach is fired.

According to ESPN Research, since 2020, teams that fire their coach midseason are 9-2 against the spread in the first game with an interim head coach. Since 2014, that record goes to 15-4 ATS, with teams covering the spread by 4.2 points per game and increasing their point differential by an average of 16.3.

There are a few caveats to keep in mind. The first is that when a team fires a coach during the season, the season is usually already lost.

For example, when Brandon Staley was fired after Week 15 last season, the Los Angeles Chargers were 5-9. The team was essentially already out of playoff contention, giving up 12.5 points against the big Bills in Week 16. That huge spread allowed LA to easily cover, despite the crowd heavily backing Buffalo on 86% of bets and 81.6% of bets. handle, according to ESPN BET. Bookmakers say such a line is based more on matchups and recent performance than any change in coaching staff.

“(The Chargers) had a stretch where they scored 17 points in three games prior to that layoff,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “The Chargers didn’t call that game. The Bills just beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead and the Cowboys at home. So (the crowd) didn’t side with the Chargers in that game.”

So it’s fascinating that the Jets not only opened as slight underdogs on “Monday Night Football,” but have fallen even short despite overwhelming public support for Buffalo both shortly after the news and throughout the week, according to DraftKings.

BetMGM and ESPN BET report more than 71% of tickets supporting the Bills, although the latter notes that 60.3% of tickets go to New York. Still, the Jets were a consensus 2.5-point underdog after Week 5 and are now seeing lines of +1 or +1.5 depending on the book.

The tight spread is indicative of the fact that the Jets still have a lot to play for. ESPN FPI says New York has a 57.5% chance of making the playoffs, which is actually a slight improvement from the 57% they showed at the start of the season. Some sportsbooks are still offering minus odds for the Jets to play in the postseason, and FanDuel says there is “continued money coming in” for their regular season win total and odds to win the AFC East.

The second factor that may influence the coach fireball is the team’s emotional response. In another example from 2023, the Las Vegas Raiders fired Josh McDaniels after Week 8 and replaced him with current full-time head coach Antonio Pierce – a “players coach” in every sense of the word. The Raiders responded by shutting out the New York Giants 30-6 the following week, easily covering their -1.5 spread.

Emotion is obviously one of the most difficult aspects of line making that bookmakers try to take into account.

“I believe in it, I’m not sure how many adjustments we can make to it,” Avello said. “I can’t look at the emotion of the game because I don’t know those emotions. I can assume what they will be, but I don’t know how long they will last once the game starts.”

It remains to be seen how this intangible emotional factor will impact the Jets. Saleh seemed to be well-liked, but so was Ulbrich, and then there’s the rampant speculation about quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ mentality regarding the whole situation. If nothing else, it will hopefully make for an entertaining match for punters and casual fans alike.