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Is Trump or Harris on Election Day?

Vaseline November 6, 2024

Some of former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris returned on Election Day as voters went to the polls.

Trump was at -175 to Harris’ +150 at British bookmaker Bet365 on Tuesday evening, an improvement for Trump compared to the -138 to +120 where the race stood on Monday morning. Trump had had the same lead a week ago with -188 to +150.

The lead recovered among the other gambling houses that USA TODAY regularly examined during the campaign.

Questions have been raised about the veracity of the move, which US bookmakers cannot legally participate in, as big gamblers appeared to have influenced the lines on cryptocurrency-based prediction markets.

The Wall Street Journal reported in October that a big jump in Trump’s odds coincided with $30 million in Trump bets from four Polymarket accounts — redi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. Each account was funded by deposits from the same US crypto exchange called Kraken, according to Arkham, a company that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity.

Arkham founder Miguel Morel told the Journal: “There are strong reasons to believe they are the same entity.”

Polymarket confirmed to CNBC that the accounts belonged to a French national with “extensive trading experience and a background in financial services.”

While not illegal or necessarily nefarious, the Journal reported that some observers see the bets as part of an influence campaign to generate social media buzz and create the perception that Trump is ahead. Polymarket has said there was no evidence to support this theory.

Here are the betting odds on the 2024 US presidential election.

Presidential betting timeline

Presidential Betting on Election Day

Bet 365

Donald Trump: -175
Kamala Harris: +150

via Covers.com

Bovada

Donald Trump: -165
Kamala Harris: +135

BetOnline

Donald Trump: -150
Kamala Harris: +130

Oddschecker

Donald Trump: -150
Kamala Harris: +160

The election results are coming in. Sign up for USA TODAY’s On Politics newsletter for the latest news and exclusive analysis.

How accurate have the election odds been in the past presidential elections?

According to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the gambling favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

The most recent turmoil occurred in 2016, when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign but lost.

The other upheaval came in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat odds of eight to one and defeated Republican Thomas Dewey.

(This story has been updated with new information)

Contributors: Joey Garrison

first Drop

first Drop

Is Trump or Harris on Election Day?

Presidential betting timeline