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Kamala Harris gets popularity boost, closes gap for first time in 3 years

Kamala Harris has seen a notable rise in popularity, achieving a positive net popularity rating for the first time in three years.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight found that Harris’ negative approval ratings began to decline dramatically after July 21, when she became a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination.

On July 20, her unfavorable rating was 16 points higher than her positive rating, with 52.7 percent of Americans viewing her unfavorably, compared to 36.8 percent who viewed her favorably. By July 27, the difference between the two ratings had narrowed to 9.6 points, with 50.4 percent of Americans holding an unfavorable opinion of her, compared to 40.8 percent who thought the opposite.

Since then, the gap has narrowed. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker now shows that her positive and negative ratings are neck and neck: 46.6 percent of Americans rate her positively, while the same percentage of Americans rate her negatively.

This is the first time Harris’ ratings have been nearly tied since July 17, 2021. At that time, her favorability was 46 percent, with 45 percent having an unfavorable opinion.

It came as a majority of polls conducted since the first presidential debate between Harris and Donald Trump on Sept. 10 in Philadelphia showed the vice president with a positive net favorability rating. Both candidates claimed victory, but a CNN flash poll conducted shortly after the debate found that 63 percent of viewers thought Harris had won, compared to 37 percent who said the same about Trump.

A Morning Consult poll conducted Sept. 13-16 found that Harris had a positive net popularity rating of 7 points among 2,037 likely voters, with 53 percent of Americans viewing her favorably, compared to 46 percent who viewed her unfavorably.

A Big Village poll conducted Sept. 11-15 found that Harris had a positive 8-point net popularity rating among 1,568 likely voters, with 53 percent of Americans favorably disposed toward her, while 45 percent of Americans viewed her unfavorably.

An Angus Reid Global poll conducted Sept. 13-16 found that Harris’s positive and negative ratings were evenly split among 1,707 registered voters. In contrast, an AtlasIntel poll conducted Sept. 11-12 found that more Americans viewed her unfavorably than favorably.

On September 11, the day after the debate, Harris’s net favorability rating stood at -0.8 points. Before the debate, the polls had fluctuated, with some showing more Americans viewing her favorably than unfavorably, while others showed the opposite.

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Vice President Kamala Harris on September 17, 2024 in Philadelphia. The Democratic Party presidential candidate has seen a boost in her popularity ratings.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

While polls are not always consistent, they show Harris polling better than her opponent Trump.

The Republican’s approval rating currently stands at 42.8 percent, while 52.7 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of him. No poll conducted since Harris became the Democratic nominee has shown more Americans view him favorably than negatively.

The Morning Consult poll found that 54 percent of voters viewed him unfavorably, while only 44 percent viewed him favorably. The Angus Reid poll found that 54 percent of voters viewed him unfavorably, while only 43 percent thought he took the opposite view.

However, FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows that Trump’s positive/negative margins have narrowed since July. On July 20, the difference between the two was 12.1 points, compared to 9.9 points now.

Still, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker still showed Harris ahead by three points, at 48.3 percent to Trump’s 45.3 percent. That’s up from her 2.5-point lead before the debate.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model also showed that Harris is expected to win the Electoral College in November, with 294 votes to Trump’s 244. That’s an increase of 279 votes compared to Trump’s 259 votes on debate day.

However, according to Nate Silver’s Electoral College prediction, Trump has a 60 percent chance of winning, compared to 38 percent for Harris.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.