This was billed as the “year of the rookie” for wide receivers in fantasy football. The 2024 NFL Draft has historically been offense-heavy, and fantasy managers took notice.

Marvin Harrison Jr. was typically a second-round pick (in some leagues he even sneaks into the late first round). Malik Nabers was drafted as a top-24 wideout. The excitement was at an all-time high.

But Week 1 took a lot of the wind out of those sails. Managers are worried about their high draft picks, and suddenly the conversation is wide open about who the best rookie wide receiver is for the 2024 fantasy football season.

It wasn’t all bad, either. Xavier Worthy was hugely impressive on opening night for the Kansas City Chiefs, and Brian Thomas Jr. looked great for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

But I’m here to tell you that the leading scorer won’t be Harrison or Nabers. It won’t even be Worthy or Thomas. It will be Keon Coleman of the Buffalo Bills.

I’m going to go on record as saying that all the memes surrounding Marvin Harrison Jr.’s struggles make him a great candidate to acquire on the cheap, but that doesn’t mean I think he’s the best option to manage rookies. Kyler Murray has typically struggled to produce a true fantasy star wideout. DeAndre Hopkins became the only Cardinal to even surpass 1,000 receiving yards in a season in 2020. Harrison should bounce back, but his ceiling still seems a bit limited.

Malik Nabers looked great in his debut, but the New York Giants did not. Daniel Jones was as terrible as advertised, and this offense has problems that Jones, or backup Drew Lock, aren’t going to solve. Nabers’ 7 targets were closer to Devin Singletary (5) than to team-leader Wan’Dale Robinson (12).

Nabers’ volume should increase, but efficiency and play calling will remain a major issue,

Xavier Worthy’s obvious downside is that Hollywood Brown will eventually return, and he could drop to fourth in the pecking order for looks in the Chiefs’ receiving game (behind Brown, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce). As it was, he had just 3 targets and 1 rush attempt in that impressive debut.

Thomas also didn’t see much volume and simply has too much competition in his offense. His 4 targets tied him with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram and were only 1 more than each of Travis Etienne and Gabe Davis saw.

So if I’m concerned about players who only got the ball 4 or 5 times in Week 1, why am I so concerned about Keon Coleman’s 4 receptions for 51 yards on 5 targets in his debut for the Buffalo Bills?

Those 5 targets gave him a team solo lead — no one else on the Bills offense saw more than 3. He accounted for 22% of the team’s total targets and 27.7% of the team’s air yards. Both shares are higher than the four players mentioned above.

Coleman also played 45 snaps — nine more than the next-best Bills WR (Mack Hollins at 36) and 12 more than third-ranked Khalil Shakir. Neither Curtis Samuel nor Marquez Valdes-Scantling played more than 20.

Coleman is the clear WR1 in this offense, and that’s a golden opportunity for fantasy production.

Yes, Buffalo went very run-heavy to open the season. But they also opened the year against an Arizona Cardinals defense that PFF ranks 32nd in run defense with an abysmal 38.2 grade in 2023 (while no other team finished worse than 50.0). The matchup was the perfect opportunity to pull out a run-heavy win. Josh Allen attempted just 23 passes, compared to his 34.1 average the previous year.

Allen still ranks No. 7 in FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds to lead the NFL in regular-season passing yards, and at +1100, there’s not a huge difference between his implied probability (8.3%) and even third-place Patrick Mahomes (11.1% at +800). He’s also No. 2 in odds to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns and No. 2 in MVP odds.

So here we have an elite quarterback who will be one of the most productive in the league statistically. Obviously his clear WR1 is going to be a huge fantasy asset, and you should trade him right away if you can, right?

Good. Buy Keon Coleman now before it’s too late.