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    • La Niña in winter? Why the weather phenomenon will slowly emerge in 2024
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    La Niña in winter? Why the weather phenomenon will slowly emerge in 2024

    Vaseline Posted on

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    The long-promised La Niña climate pattern has not yet formed, but it is expected to do so within about a month, federal scientists announced Thursday.

    Specifically, the Climate Prediction Center said there is a 60% chance that La Niña conditions will occur in late November. And once formed, it is expected to last until January-March 2025.

    Speaking about La Niña, climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux told USA TODAY that “its onset has been delayed… It hasn’t formed yet.” She added that the delayed onset could mean a weaker version of La Niña, if one does indeed form.

    Another forecaster, AccuWeather’s Jason Nicholls, agreed, noting, “It still looks like a weak La Niña will develop in the coming months, which will be short-lived.”

    La Niña often creates weather patterns that increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin, and if it forms, it could still impact the end of this year’s season. It also affects winter weather in the US and around the world.

    What is La Niña?

    La Niña is a natural climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below average for three consecutive months, a La Niña is declared.

    “While this sounds like a small temperature change, it could cause significant changes in weather patterns around the world,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada.

    It is one of the most important weather factors in the United States, especially during late fall, winter and early spring. It is the opposite of the better-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean waters are at least 0.9 degrees warmer than average for three months.

    What could La Niña bring next winter?

    According to the Climate Prediction Center, a typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most southern states. In the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, temperatures during a La Niña winter are also often higher than average.

    New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see lower than average temperatures, according to the Weather Channel.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its official winter forecast Thursday, and L’Heureux said the likely La Niña will be a big part of the forecast.

    Other forecasters were also watching for La Nina: Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said that while there were no signs of El Niño or La Niña phenomena at this time, La Niña characteristics were approaching.

    What is El Nino? What is ENSO neutral?

    El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. It occurs on average every two to seven years.

    The name means ‘the little boy’ or ‘Christ child’ in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 17th century when unusually warm water appeared in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.

    The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, which scientists call ENSO. The cycle fluctuates between warmer and cooler seawater in an area along the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña is characterized by cooler than average ocean waters in the region.

    When water temperatures are not unusually warm or cool, ‘ENSO neutral’ conditions are declared.

    That’s what’s happening now: “Waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator have remained at near-average temperatures this month,” Weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce said Thursday. This means that neither El Niño, nor its counterpart La Niña, will last.

    Contributions: Reuters

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