Current status: PHI 90-59, NYM 81-68 (9 GB), ATL 81-68 (9 GB), WAS 68-81 (22 GB), MIA 55-95 (35.5 GB)

Expected winner:Philadelphia Phillies

Expected Wild Card Teams:New York Mets

The Phillies have led this division by a 5-10 game margin for almost four months at this point, and it’s a foregone conclusion that they’ll pull it off and get a first-round bye. Maybe the No. 1 seed. Maybe the No. 2 seed. But there’s no real drama.

But the battle for second place in this division could soon be the only match that really matters.

At the All-Star Break, Atlanta was comfortably in the expected postseason field. The Phillies led the division by 8.5 games, but Atlanta was two games behind the second-seeded Dodgers and five games ahead of the first team on the wrong side of the cutline for the sixth seed.

They haven’t played badly since then, with a winning record of 28-26, better than what Philadelphia, Baltimore, Cleveland and Minnesota have accomplished over the past two months.

Unfortunately, San Diego finished 35-16, Arizona 34-18 and New York 32-22, meaning the Braves collectively nearly missed the cut.

And now that Reynaldo López has landed back on the IL (shoulder) after being knocked out early in Tuesday’s start against Washington, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely they’ll have a shot at reclaiming their spot.

Could the schedule save Atlanta?

Not only do they have a huge opportunity at home against the Mets (Sept. 24-26), they also get back-to-back series against Cincinnati and Miami before that showdown, while New York has to close out that series in Atlanta with four games against Philadelphia and three in Milwaukee.

What makes the final weekend so intriguing is that the Brewers may be assured of a third-place finish, but they are also in a position to determine who they field in that wild-card series.

Meanwhile, Atlanta hosts Kansas City, which could likely clinch the fifth spot in the AL at that point. If that’s the case, they might save Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha for their 4/5 matchup, which could be just the ticket to get the Braves over the finish line.

For now we’re predicting the Mets, but this could get exciting.

(Not for nothing is the season series between Atlanta and New York currently tied at 5-5, meaning the winner of that remaining three-game set would have the upper hand in a potential tiebreaker. Because they were blown out in Atlanta at the exact same point in the 2022 schedule, the Mets lost the NL East tiebreaker two years ago.)