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    • Latest research on Harris vs. Trump
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    Latest research on Harris vs. Trump

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    Election Day is just three days away and presidential election polls continue to point to a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

    National polls provide a snapshot of the national electorate, and some recent polls suggest Trump may have taken a lead. Meanwhile, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll on Friday showed Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most electoral votes. But the Electoral College system means the race will likely be decided by seven battleground states.

    Both Harris and Trump will appear at events in North Carolina — one of those swing states — on Saturday. Trump has scheduled appearances in Charlotte and Greensboro, as well as Salem, Virginia. Before an event in Charlotte, Harris will appear at an afternoon rally in Atlanta — Georgia is also a swing state.

    Here are the latest polls suggesting where the race stands.

    Summary of the 2024 elections: Democrats pile on Trump’s ‘violent rhetoric’

    Latest Washington Post Poll: Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania

    Harris leads Trump by one percentage point in a new Washington Post poll of likely voters and registered voters in Pennsylvania, another swing state. Harris is at 48% among both likely and registered voters, while Trump is at 47% — statistically a dead end with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points — in the poll released Friday.

    The poll of 1,204 registered voters, conducted Oct. 26 to 30, also gave respondents the choice of a third-party candidate.

    The new poll also showed strong voter enthusiasm among both parties in the state, which is crucial to any candidate’s path to victory. Twenty percent of respondents said they had already voted, while another 73% said they would definitely vote, “representing 94 percent of the electorate, after rounding up the percentages,” according to the Post.

    Harris leads Trump nationally and in swing states, according to the Forbes/HarrisX survey

    Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% among likely voters nationwide and has the same slim margin in the seven battleground states, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll released Thursday.

    The survey of 4,523 registered voters and 3,718 likely voters – 910 of them in battleground states – was conducted from October 27 to 29 (margin of error: ± 1.5 percentage points).

    Harris’s lead in the battleground states has narrowed from a HarrisX/Forbes poll released a week earlier; at that point, Harris had a 50% to 46% advantage. Some voters remain undecided, the latest poll shows, with 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters still weighing their choices.

    Election Day 2024 is just days away. Sign up for USA TODAY’s On Politics newsletter for the latest news and exclusive analysis.

    Detroit Free Press poll: Harris in Michigan

    Harris leads Trump in Michigan in a new Detroit Free Press poll released Friday. The poll of 600 likely voters surveyed from October 24 to 28 showed Harris with a lead of 48% to 45%, with a margin of error of ±4 points. The Detroit Free Press is part of the USA TODAY Network.

    One interesting finding in the poll: The number of undecided respondents was less than 1%, something pollster Bernie Porn of EPIC-MRA, the Lansing, Michigan-based research firm that conducted the poll, said he’s not sure he’s seen before . “These are unusual elections,” he said.

    Election Day: Join Your Vote, our messaging group, and send us your questions

    Trump leads in Florida, according to the latest Stetson poll

    Trump leads Harris in Florida in a new poll from the Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research released Friday. The poll of 452 likely voters, surveyed from Oct. 25 to Nov. 1 found Trump ahead of Harris 53% to 46%, with a margin of error of ±5%.

    That is a margin higher than the 51.2% of votes Trump received in the 2020 presidential election and 49% of the votes in the 2016 election.

    MassINC poll: Harris doing well in Massachusetts

    In the blue state of Massachusetts, Harris appears to receive the same support that President Joe Biden and candidate Hillary Clinton received from voters in the 2020 and 2016 elections, according to the MassINC Polling Group’s latest poll of Massachusetts voters, released Friday. released.

    Harris leads Trump 61% to 31% in the poll, based on an Oct. 29-Nov. poll. 1 survey of 582 likely voters in Massachusetts (margin of error of ±4.9 percentage points). In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden received 65.9% of the state’s votes, compared to Trump’s 32.1%. In the 2016 election, Clinton won 61%, Trump’s 33.3%.

    A note about the ballot box

    The margin of error measurement describes how accurately we can count on the research results being representative of the entire population.

    When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

    Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, significantly underestimating Trump’s performance.

    Contributors: Kinsey Crowley, Savannah Kuchar and Sam Woodward, USA TODAY; and Reuters.

    Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & microphone snider.

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