After an entertaining qualifying session for the Azerbaijan GP, ​​with the surprising elimination of Lando Norris in Q1 and the now customary pole position in Baku for Charles Leclerc, a race with a lot of uncertainty is about to begin, with a high probability of a Safety Car and/or a red flag.

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Azerbaijan GP. And we encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race too!

Race Predictions: 2024 Azerbaijan GP

10. Franco Colapinto

Williams has a great weekend and Franco Colapinto was the surprise qualifier in Baku. Logan Sargeant’s replacement at the Grove team for the rest of the 2024 season has done what the American driver has not been able to do in a year and a half: beat Alex Albon in qualifying!

After also making a great debut in Monza, Colapinto proves that he has the speed to be an official Formula 1 driver and not just an interim replacement. Today he has the great opportunity to score his first point as a Formula 1 driver, starting from P9.

9. Fernando Alonso

The Spanish driver always manages to get his car in a place where it doesn’t really belong. He beat Haas and Williams in qualifying and was only +0.080 seconds behind Lewis Hamilton. The Aston Martin driver will have to drive an epic race, just like in Monza, to keep the AMR24 in the points.

It will be difficult to hold off his rivals for 51 laps in a car that often diminishes its potential on race days, but if anyone can do it, it is him. He will start the race in P8 and will certainly be the protagonist of many battles on track with such a tight midfield.

8. Lando Norris

In a race without surprises and external factors that could change the race, P8 is the maximum that Lando aims for, starting from P16 on the grid. Even if he follows a different strategy than all his rivals, the gap is too big to aim for more, even with the possibility to overtake on the long straight.

Lando will likely have to start on the hard tyre to make his first stint as long as possible, hoping that a Safety Car or red flag will bring him luck and give him the opportunity to achieve a better result than a P8 in Baku.

7.Lewis Hamilton

This was written before Lewis Hamilton’s pit lane start was confirmed

Lewis is completely unnoticed this weekend. Beaten again in qualifying by George Russell, it doesn’t look like it will be a great weekend for the seven-time world champion. He starts 7th and has rivals in front of him who initially have more race pace than he does.

Azerbaijan GP data unpacked after qualifying in Baku

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👉 Data from Baku confirms Lando Norris’ real culprit in Q1 exit amid yellow flag drama

6. George Russel

The Mercedes driver put in a great qualifying performance to finish in P5, while P3 was just a few hundredths of a second behind him.

Behind him is Max Verstappen and in front of the drivers whose cars were slightly more competitive this weekend.

5. Sergio Perez

The ‘king’ of Baku beat his team-mate in qualifying for the first time this season and is also the only driver to have more than one win at this circuit.

However, we think that Red Bull is keen on Max taking maximum points from Lando Norris in this race. McLaren has been stronger for a while now and the threat in the world championship is real. Any help for Max is good and welcome for the Dutch driver.

4. Max Verstappen

After a few difficult races, it looks like Azerbaijan won’t be an easy ride for him either. But in the hunt for his fourth world title, with Lando Norris starting in P16, finishing P4 could be a heavy blow for his rival.

He starts the race in P6 after being outclassed by Sergio Perez and overtaken by George Russell. But in the race Max should have an advantage over George and his teammate. And if not, Red Bull should help him out a bit.

3. Carlos Sainz

Good weekend for the Spanish driver. Despite being behind Charles Leclerc, he is living up to expectations. His pace in the race is good and the pace of the Ferrari is good. He starts 3rd and a podium would be a great result for him in Baku.

2. Charles Leclerc

Charles is the man to beat in the race in Azerbaijan. Ferrari has shown great pace all weekend, but Leclerc’s curse in Baku is real.

This is his fourth pole position on the Azerbaijan street circuit and he hasn’t won in the last three. It’s true that the SF24 looks better this time than in other years and with such a tight group he is the big favorite. But… someone has to make a statement in this race.

1. Oscar Piastri

Statement made for Oscar Piastri? He will start in P2 and will undoubtedly give everything to take victory in Azerbaijan. After much talk about the ‘papaya rules’ that McLaren finally changed for this race, the Australian driver has an incredible opportunity to mark his territory and prove that he can even beat Lando Norris in the standings this season.

McLaren must be smart and not make the strategic mistakes of Italy if they really want to win in Baku. It is their turn to have a rematch from the pit wall against Ferrari.

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