It is well documented that the Tampa Bay area is extremely vulnerable to hurricanes and that the region has also managed to avoid major hurricanes over the past century.

It’s far too early for residents around Tampa Bay to breathe a sigh of relief, but Hurricane Milton wobbled further south than expected on Tuesday, prompting a southerly shift in the National Hurricane Center’s forecast.

Meteorologists usually emphasize that they should not focus on the exact track or even focus on the cone, because significant impacts always occur outside the cone. In fact, the National Hurricane Center’s cone is only designed to capture the storm’s path two-thirds of the time. This means that one in three times the track of the storm falls outside the cone. However, that exact trace is very important when it comes to the details of the effects.

The worst storm surge in Hurricane Milton is expected to occur near the landfall point and to the south, based on the angle at which the storm approaches the coast. If current trajectories showing a path to Sarasota are true, the worst of the storm surge would occur in places like Sarasota, Venice and south into places vulnerable to surges like Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. On the north side of the storm, winds over Tampa Bay would push most of the water out of the bay, possibly even lowering water levels, as happened during Hurricane Ian, which made landfall near Fort Myers in 2022.

This current trajectory is only about 40 miles south of Tampa or 20 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay, and the NHC warns that uncertainty remains and further swings – north or south – are possible. It’s also very important to note that Tampa is still in a cone of uncertainty.

Even with a potential route south of Tampa, which would spare that area the worst of the wave, there is still a significant risk of catastrophic hurricane winds and flooding rain. Hurricane Milton is expected to grow into a major storm as it approaches landfall, and much of the Florida peninsula will experience the storm’s wrath.