Russia’s possible use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a message to the West that the country has greater capabilities than previously shown after a week of significant military operations and policy changes in both Ukraine and Russia.

The West has been concerned for some time about a mutual Russian escalation of the war. This week, both US and British-French missiles were fired at Russia by Ukraine, after US President Joe Biden allowed Kiev to use US missiles with longer range.

In turn, President Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine – in a nuanced way, but still refined their policies to lower the barrier to use.

There is no indication that the potential ICBM that Russia fired around 5 a.m. local time was a nuclear weapon, and there is no evidence that a nuclear explosion occurred overnight. Such an event would have provoked a very different reaction in Kiev and the West.

But it is also notable that the American, Greek and Spanish embassies in Kiev are closed on Wednesday. It could be possible that they had been informed of the possible launch of the ICBM by Russia and had taken precautions; When using a missile like this, a nuclear power could choose to warn other nuclear powers so that they do not mistake it as another type of launch.

So what we know now is very little: a statement from the Ukrainian Air Force that an ICBM was used, another set of sounds in Dnipro. But the effect remains palpable. Russia has tried to send a message, and may have succeeded, by likely firing a new type of conventional missile to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.

This escalation does not necessarily represent a major change in Russian capabilities, or in the outcome of the war, which was already in their favor.

The most important questions we don’t yet have answers to are: what exactly was this rocket, what is it capable of, and what did it do?