The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its seasonal outlook for the winter months 2024-2025, predicting that the US will slowly transition to a La Niña pattern that could bring wetter than average conditions in the north and drier than average conditions in the south.

NOAA’s seasonal outlook forecast wetter than average conditions across the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region and the Northwest. Drier than average conditions are expected for the southern part of the US, particularly in the Four Corners region, which includes the southwestern corner of Colorado, the southeastern corner of Utah, the northeastern corner of Arizona and the northwestern corner of New Mexico . – and to the southeast.

The forecast does not predict seasonal snowfall, as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

Warmer than average temperatures are expected from the southern U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, the East Coast, New England and northern Alaska. These opportunities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas. Below-average temperatures are most likely across southern Alaska, with below-average temperatures slightly favored from the Pacific Northwest to the northern plateaus.

With the transition to La Niña, drought conditions are expected to improve or end in the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes region and parts of the northwestern US, including eastern Washington and Oregon and northern and central Idaho .

Above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern part of the US. These chances are greatest in parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

The greatest chance of drier than average conditions will be found in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Texas and southern New Mexico. Drought conditions are expected to continue in the Great Plains. Drought conditions are likely to develop or worsen in parts of the Southwest and Gulf Coast.

Much of California, the central Plains states, and the Interstate 95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C., have equal chances of below-average, near-average, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks are intended to help communities prepare for what is likely to happen in the coming months and minimize the impact of weather on lives and livelihoods. Resources such as drought.gov and climate.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-related hazards.

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