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MLB Division Series: Tigers-Guardians Game 5 predictions, keys

Due to the weather forecast in Cleveland, Game 5 of the American League Division Series is now a Saturday matinee between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers.

One of those teams will see their season end on Saturday. The other goes to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees in the championship series.

Will it be top talent Tarik Skubal and the upstart “Gritty Tigs” moving forward? Or will the AL Central champion Guardians hold off the underdogs?

We’ve got you covered with pre-match predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, 1:08 p.m

Series tied 2-2

Pitching match: Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) vs. Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA)

Setups

Tigers

TBA

Guards

TBA


What’s the key to Game 5 for the Tigers?

Jesse Rogers: Just don’t make any mistakes and let Tarik Skubal do his thing. The Tigers will likely get some traffic on the bases against Matthew Boyd – perhaps playing small ball can come in handy – but not beating themselves will be as important as anything in a hostile environment at Progressive Field. That means he doesn’t run into outs or cause Skubal to get four or five outs in an inning. Once Skubal comes out of the game — as he comes out – then it’s up to manager AJ Hinch to exploit the right matchups. He’s done it for most of the series.

David Schoenfield: That is essentially my opinion too. I feel like the Tigers need a few early runs against Boyd before they get into the main part of the Cleveland bullpen – Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase. Especially since you know Guardians manager Stephen Vogt’s plan is for Clase to throw maybe two innings. (Yes, the Tigers got him in two of his appearances, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening a third time.)

The only problem here for Detroit: Where will those runs come from? Kerry Carpenter wouldn’t have been in the starting lineup against a southpaw anyway, and now his status is unclear after injuring his hamstring in Game 4. Riley Greene? Colt Keith? Parker Meadows? All three are lefty hitters who don’t do much against left-handed pitchers. That means guys like Andy Ibanez and Justyn-Henry Malloy, not to be confused with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, will have to step up.


What’s the key to Game 5 for the Guardians?

Rogers: They have two options: squeeze a few runs off Skubal and hope their stellar bullpen can keep Detroit off the board after Boyd gives them a few innings, or do what they did in Game 2: survive Skubal and Than score. That’s the formula. Easier said than done. Bottom line: The way Skubal is pitching, Cleveland doesn’t have a chance if Boyd or anyone else has a bad outing. So keeping it close is really the Guardians’ only option. It would help immensely if Jose Ramirez builds on his last game.

Schoenfield: If possible, force Skubal to increase his pitch count and get him out as quickly as possible. Unfortunately for the Guardians, one of the things that has made Skubal the best starter in the Majors this season is his fielding efficiency. Even in his two playoff starts, he has thrown only 88 and 92 pitches, but still went six and seven innings. In the regular season, he passed 100 pitches only four times. If the Guardians can get him to that point in five innings instead of seven, they have a chance. Yes, Detroit’s bullpen has been mostly out for two months, but we finally saw it bow out in Game 4 when he gave up four runs, and it feels like Cleveland can do some damage there again. And yes, Jose Ramirez doing Jose Ramirez things would indeed help immensely.


Which team will face the Yankees in the ALCS?

Rogers: I’m not betting against the zone Skubal is in now. If he had shown any cracks last outing or when the postseason started, I might pick Clevleand. The Guardians have already bucked a franchise trend by avoiding elimination (they had lost their previous eleven tries heading into Game 4), but they’re not going to do it again. But it shall be a close game. It would be shocking if that weren’t the case.

Schoenfield: I’m going for the Guardians, with a 2-1 win. Maybe they’ll score a run against Skubal. Maybe they score a few runs late against the Detroit Bullpen. Either way, I think Cleveland’s bullpen – the best in the Majors all season – comes out big with the season on the line, and the Guardians pull out a low-scoring win. How about a Ramirez walk-off to win it?

Live updates

Tune in during the game for live updates and analysis from Game 5.