SAN ANTONIO — Roki Sasaki is so immensely talented that teams should prepare for the possibility that the Japanese pitcher could be on the verge of becoming an international free agent, even if club officials still don’t know if that will actually happen this winter. These complex negotiations between the Chiba Lotte Marines, Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball could determine the future of the sport’s next potential superstar.

Amid the uncertainty, Sasaki was a popular name at MLB general managers meetings this week, where agents, executives and reporters held their posts at the JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Resort and Spa. The early buzz naturally centered around the Los Angeles Dodgers, as lately it seems like they always get what they want. But if Sasaki ended up in the postal system at age 23, it would cause a frenzy.

Here’s what you need to know, based on information from competition sources:

Why Sasaki might have to wait

NPB’s rules and working agreement with MLB do not guarantee Sasaki will become a free agent this season. All NPB players require nine years of service in Japan before qualifying for International Free Agency. Sasaki only has four, so he needs his team’s cooperation to make the jump.

Financial incentives could force the Chiba Lotte Marines to retain Sasaki for the time being. Through the postal system, Japanese teams receive money for player releases, fees calculated based on the signing bonus and different percentages for certain salary thresholds.

Given Sasaki’s age, he would only be eligible to sign a minor league contract under MLB postal rules. That potential deal would be financed with international bonus money. Each club’s current allocation amount is less than $8 million.

So there’s a huge pay difference between what Sasaki would get now — and, as a byproduct, what the Chiba Lotte Marines would get now — versus waiting until he turns 25 years old.

Roki Sasaki struck out nine in eight scoreless innings in Game 1 against the Fighters. pic.twitter.com/O5IsZYR5sB

— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 12, 2024

Follow the money

If Sasaki were to be cut this offseason, he would receive a bonus similar to what Shohei Ohtani received when he faced the same restrictions. In 2017, after a fierce recruiting battle, Ohtani chose the Los Angeles Angels, signing for $2.3 million, a fraction of his eventual production and the value he generated for the West Coast franchise.

The differences between major and minor league contracts – and in these cases 23 or 25 – are enormous.

By waiting until after his 25th birthday to go through the postal process last winter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a record $325 million contract with the Dodgers. The post fee for Yamamoto’s previous team, the Orix Buffaloes, cost the Dodgers another $50.6 million.

Executives said they didn’t expect Sasaki to hold the pitching market the way Yamamoto did a year ago because of bonus pool limitations.

Teams that would be in the mix

In theory, every club should be involved, as the investment would be a relatively small amount. The difference between the amount of international bonus money from one club and that of another club is marginal. It wouldn’t be an escalating bidding war so much as a recruiting battle.

Still, the prevailing thought in the industry is that the Dodgers loom as the favorite. However, Sasaki’s exact preferences are not yet known. The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are among the teams that have scouted him heavily. On Wednesday, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said he traveled to Japan in September to watch Sasaki play the field as a way to show interest and respect. And Stearns is certainly not the only powerful executive who made that gesture.

The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres are also among the groups that have extensively scouted and signed players from Asia in recent years. And teams would presumably get the chance to give their presentations to Sasaki, trying to sell him on a vision.

NPB sets December 15 as the last posting date for the cycle. Then there is a negotiation period of 45 days to sign from the day a player is placed. That deadline and period are the same regardless of whether a player signs a Major League deal or a Minor League contract.

Scouting report

With a 100 mph fastball and a devastating splitter, Sasaki profiles as a potential top starter. “He reminds me of Jacob deGrom,” said an industry source. “He would develop into a number 1.”

“If he was someone who was in the amateur draft,” said one high-ranking executive, “he could easily go in the top five of the draft, probably better.”

GO DEEPER

Roki Sasaki has top shelf stuff. How would it translate to Major League Baseball?

Sasaki is younger than Yamamoto, without the same polish in his game or track record in log innings. Due in part to injuries, Sasaki’s NPB workload to date (less than 400 innings) is not even half of what Yamamoto had produced. That experience helped Yamamoto adapt more quickly at Dodger Stadium, where he defeated the Padres in a playoff elimination game and won a World Series game against the Yankees.

Sasaki’s learning curve could be steeper. There is also still plenty of room to grow and the feeling that the challenge of pitching on the sport’s biggest stage would accelerate that development.

“He is not the finished product that Yamamoto is,” said a club official. “But there aren’t many people in the world who are more talented.”

(Top photo of Roki Sasaki pitching for Japan in 2023: Eric Espada / Getty Images)