The worst thing a studio can do on a huge weekend like this is overprojection. And if there’s one thing about Thanksgiving predictions, they’re always overprojected. Currently Disney’s Moana 2 makes an estimate $54 million first day, including yesterday’s Walt Disney Animation preview record of $13.8 million. At the very least, this will set up the Dwayne Johnson-Auli’i Cravalho sequel $170 million+ in 4,200 theaters, easily a five-day Thanksgiving record for both an opening and Disney’s own record Frozen ($93.9 million), as well as a top-grossing film during the holiday season, with the former Frozen 2 ($125 million). The 3-day before Moana 2 is somewhere in between $90 million – $100 million +.

This is Disney’s fourth blockbuster north of $100M+ domestically under the Alan Bergman team after that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Inside Out 2 (the highest-grossing film of the year) and Deadpool & Wolverine the latter is the highest R-rated film of all time.

Now some rivals are easily seeing $200 million+ over the Wednesday through Sunday period, and if Moana 2 crosses that threshold, she crushes the five-day opening record holder, Super Mario Bros Movie ($204.6 million) as a turtle. Please note that this requires the first day Moana 2 that Illumination/Nintendo title’s first-day best at $31.7 million, but that pic had no previews. Back outside Moana 2‘s previews, and the surfer girl currently stands at $40.2 million.

We’re not done yet…Bad will be by Sunday $236.9 millionperhaps the best American film ever based on a Broadway musical, buried Fat ($190 million). 5 days later Bad is estimated at $92 million. Today it is $18.5 millionthe photo’s highest weekday yet, +11% from yesterday, which will culminate in a $61 million second weekend, -46% in 3,888 theaters. Production for both Bads is $320 million before P&A.

Paramounts Gladiator 2 another one posts on 3,580 sites $6.7 million today, for a second weekend of $27.3 million-50% and 5 days discount $39.4 million and a running total of $106.6 million for production of $250 million.

Some will get their double dose of The Rock this weekend, also heading to Amazon MGM Studios’ Red who is looking for A $3 million Wednesday, $13 million third weekend, -1%, $19 million 5 day and running total of $76.3 million.

Lionsgate’s fourth weekend of The best Christmas parade ever can be seen at 1,832 locations $950K Today, $3.9 million for three days (+14%), 5 days $5.7 millionand a total of $32.8 million.

Remember, the largest five-day Thanksgiving frame is Wednesday through Sunday for all 2018 titles, when Ralph disconnects the internet opened for number 1, which garnered period $315.6 million according to Comscore. It looks like we can easily surpass that benchmark.