Last year, the then-No. 4-ranked Bobcats played at No. 3 Montana in the regular season finale for the outright conference title. One week before this year’s Brawl of the Wild, No. 2 MSU (10-0, 6-0 Big Sky) will be in Davis, California, taking on No. 4 UC Davis (9-1, 6-0) with a chance to clinch at least a share of the Big Sky title and earn the league’s automatic FCS playoff berth. The game will kick off at 6 p.m. Mountain time Saturday at UC Davis Health Stadium.

The Bobcats lost in Missoula last year after sharing the conference crown with Sacramento State in 2022. The Aggies earned their first — and, so far, only — Big Sky title in 2018 as co-champions with Eastern Washington and Weber State.

“Winning the Big Sky Conference is a significant goal of ours, so with that on the line this week, along with the auto bid and all of that, it’s another step in the direction of where we want to go,” MSU head coach Brent Vigen said Monday. “It doesn’t mean we need to try harder all of the sudden this weekend. We don’t have to come up with a bunch of new guys or anything like that. We just have to keep doing what we’re doing and maybe just do it a little bit better.”

MSU is a 7 1/2-point favorite to beat the Aggies for the eighth straight time. UC Davis’ only win over the Cats happened the first time they met, 45-0 in 2006.

Here are five things to watch in Saturday’s game, which will be televised on Montana CBS stations, streamed on ESPN+ and broadcast on the Bobcat Radio Network:

MSU’s offense averages 7.2 yards per rush, tops in the FCS. UC Davis’ defense has allowed exactly half that many yards per run (3.6), No. 1 among Big Sky teams.

“Something’s going to have to give,” Vigen said.

The Cats have reasons to feel optimistic that UC Davis’ defense will give.

MSU leads the FCS in points per game (42.4), total yards per game (520.1), yards per play (7.76) and rushing yards per game (333). Last month, the Cats ran for 360 yards on 6.7 yards per carry against Idaho, a top-10 team with a stout defensive front that has allowed 3.15 ypc against its other nine opponents, including current FBS No. 1 Oregon. MSU didn’t have its 2023 leading rusher, Julius Davis, for that 38-7 win either (the veteran running back returned from an injury two weeks ago).

MSU starting QB Tommy Mellott keyed the ground success that night, rushing for a season-high 140 yards on 11 carries — his only game with double-digit rushing attempts this season. MSU’s coaches have been purposeful about minimizing his injury risk, and the senior from Butte has rarely needed to use his legs because the Cats have defeated all but two opponents by at least three scores.

There’s a good chance Mellott will run often Saturday, although that’ll largely depend on how the Aggies defend MSU’s read-option plays.

“Tommy’s a good player, super fast, super dangerous in the run game. He carries out all his fakes super well, so it’s kind of hard to see where the ball is,” Aggies safety Rex Connors told 406 MT Sports on Tuesday. “A big emphasis for us is just doing your job, seeing your key and staying on your key. No hero ball.”

UC Davis’ depth chart lists three down D-linemen and three linebackers, but one of the outside LBs often lines up on the line of scrimmage, making the defense like MSU’s 4-2-5 scheme, Vigen said.

“You’ve got to earn it against them,” he added.

The Cats often move their defensive linemen around, whether that’s pre-snap with All-American D-end Brody Grebe (back from an injury that kept him out last week) lined up above the center or during the play with stunts or a DE dropping back into coverage while a linebacker blitzes.

MSU’s LBs will often fake a blitz and drop into coverage, and occasionally a cornerback will blitz, as Andrew Powdrell and Simeon Woodard did on tackles for loss in last week’s 49-7 win over Sacramento State.

“What it really comes down to is winning that pre-snap, trying to figure out what their disguise is and really watching as much film and being as prepared as we can so we do know what they’re stunting to or what they’re getting into coverage-wise,” UC Davis running back Lan Larison said Tuesday.

Larison, the 2023 Big Sky offensive player of the year, and 2022 all-conference first-team QB Miles Hastings lead an offense that averages 35.3 points per game (third in the Big Sky, tied for 13th in the FCS) and 461.3 total yards per game (second in the Big Sky, fifth in the FCS). None of MSU’s opponents so far have scored more than UC Davis, and the only one that’s averaged more yards per game is New Mexico (479.6), which MSU beat 35-31 in the season opener.

On defense, the Aggies have 12 sacks this season (third-fewest in the Big Sky, tied for 14th-fewest in the FCS), but they’re able to get pressure with four rushers, Vigen said. Some stunts and five-man pressures allowed UC Davis to “get the quarterback off his spot” in last week’s 30-14 win at Montana, said UC Davis head coach Tim Plough.

The Aggies, who finished with two sacks against the Grizzlies, sometimes utilize defensive packages similar to MSU’s, with an edge player dropping into coverage while an inside LB blitzes.

“They do a really good job of keeping you on your toes,” Vigen said, adding, “Really do a good job of mixing up their looks on third down, mixing up their fronts, mixing up their coverages.”

UC Davis allowed an 80-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in its season-opening 31-13 loss at FBS Cal. Other than that, the Aggies have allowed 17.6 yards per kickoff return, a mark that would be second-fewest among Big Sky teams and 23rd in the FCS.

MSU averages 17.6 yards per kick return. Starting KR Marqui Johnson has been mostly quiet on returns since his 2022 All-Big Sky season, and he’s out with an injury for most of this season. RB Jared White is currently listed as the first-string KR, but the Cats have often put RB Adam Jones and fullback Rohan Jones in that spot recently.

“Getting Julius back and really being completely healthy has allowed us to put Adam back there,” Vigen said. “We haven’t had many opportunities, but the idea is that’s one more opportunity for Adam to touch the ball.”

Whoever returns kickoffs for MSU on Saturday should get opportunities. UC Davis has allowed 26 kickoff returns this season, nearly twice as many as MSU has attempted.

MSU’s opponents, on the other hand, have returned six kicks, thanks to Brendan Hall’s FCS-leading 67 touchbacks. The Aggies average 22.1 yards per kickoff return with a long of 72.

“Playing at a lower elevation, I think the kick return game might become a little bit more of a factor out there (in Davis) than it has been for much of our season,” Vigen said.

Led by Hall, the Cats boast the fifth-best net punting average in the subdivision (42.14 yards per punt). UC Davis ranks 102nd (34.23), and that number could drop Saturday. Taco Dowler’s 11.8 yards per punt return is 11th among FCS players. The Aggies average 4.6 yards per punt return with a long of 22.

UC Davis has blocked a field goal/PAT three times this season, and MSU has two blocked kicks. The Cats have also blocked two punts, while the Aggies have blocked one.

“The blocks and returns we had early have paid dividends,” Vigen said. “Teams are doing everything they can to get the ball off, make it very confusing for us and punt the ball away from Taco. Same thing goes for (UC Davis).”

UC Davis placekicker Hunter Ridley is the reigning Big Sky special teams player of the week after making his three field goal attempts at UM, all from 40-plus yards. He’s 16 of 18 on field goal tries (long of 46) and 39 of 41 extra point attempts this fall.

“To have a great kicker to lean on makes you feel really confident about being aggressive and trying to find ways to get touchdowns,” Plough said.

MSU’s Myles Sansted has drilled 9 of 12 field goal attempts (long of 45) and 55 of 56 PATs.

“We’re going to have to find a way to get an edge on the special teams side of things, even if that’s the slightest of an edge,” Vigen said. “Sometimes winning in the special teams is just not losing.”

Red zone woes contributed heavily to MSU’s four losses last season.

The Cats settled for field goals three times inside South Dakota State’s 10-yard line in their 20-16 defeat. They missed a field goal after reaching the red zone on their final drive in a 24-21 loss at Idaho. A wayward 42-yard field goal down 14-0 played a role in their 37-7 Cat-Griz loss. Two weeks later, Casey Kautzman missed a 33-yard FG on the opening drive of MSU’s season-ending 35-34 overtime loss to North Dakota State.

This season, MSU has scored on 43 of its 45 red zone trips (36 TDs, seven FGs), the second-best rate in the FCS. Both unsuccessful red zone trips happened at Utah Tech in MSU’s second game of the season.

UC Davis ranks 20th in the FCS with 40 scores (26 TDs, 14 FGs) on 46 drives that ended within the opposing 20-yard line. Four of those red zone failures happened in the first five games.

“Our red zone improvement has been steadily getting where we want,” Plough said. “Tried to really look at what we were doing poorly as a staff and tried to get our guys in a better position to be successful down there. … To win football games, you’re going to have to convert in those situations.”

The Aggies have the best red zone defense in the Big Sky, allowing 19 TDs and five FGs in 32 situations when they’ve been backed up inside their own 20. MSU is second in the conference in that category, allowing 14 TDs and three FGs on 22 opposing red zone trips.

Only five FCS teams have allowed fewer red zone opportunities than the Cats.

The Cats and Aggies both made red zone stops last week — Connors and MSU’s Jon Johnson intercepted passes in the end zone. Rex’s twin brother Porter Connors also had a fourth quarter interception that led to the game’s final points (on an FG).

The ability to force turnovers is probably UC Davis’ “most significant” defensive statistic other than its rushing yards allowed, Vigen said. The Aggies are first in the Big Sky with 19 turnovers gained (13 INTs, six fumbles).

MSU has forced 12 TOs (tied for 62nd-most in the FCS) and is facing an offense that has coughed it up 13 times (49th-most in the FCS). The Cats have turned it over eight times (tied for 10th-fewest).