Updated at 1:09 p.m.

Montana’s 2024 election concluded Tuesday evening, with results in many statewide contests clear as vote counting continued through Wednesday morning. Since polls closed at 8 p.m. Tuesday, Montana Free Press reporters stationed across the state have updated this story periodically with the progress and results of Montana-level races and ballot questions.

Our election night reporting included early vote counts as they were released by local election officials as well as race call predictions issued by The Associated Press and statements from winning and losing campaigns.

While the AP and other national news organizations commonly predict race outcomes based on partial vote counts and statistical models predicting the partisan breakdown of uncounted votes. Even in races with clear outcomes, vote counts are considered unofficial until election officials complete the post-election canvass process in the weeks after Election Day.

Readers may also be interested in our live vote count dashboard courtesy of The Associated Press and our overview of the process that election workers use to translate cast ballots into published vote counts. For more information on specific candidates, see MTFP’s 2024 election guide and the thousands of words of material we’ve published over the course of this long election season.

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FEDERAL OFFICIALS

U.S. Senate (Click to go to live AP race results)

Tom Lutey is covering the race from Great Falls.

Republican Tim Sheehy has won Montana’s U.S. Senate race, unseating incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.

Tester, a three-term senator from Big Sandy conceded the race shortly after 6:30 a.m. Wednesday. Sheehy led by 43,000 votes, or a 53% vote share with more half Montana’s precincts fully counted. 

“I called Tim Sheehy. I congratulated him on being the senator-elect for the state of Montana. And I told him, ‘Work hard. Keep Montana, the greatest state, in the greatest country in the world” Tester said.

The third-party candidates in the race, Libertarian Sid Daoud and Green candidate Robert Barb, each had about a 1% vote share. A brief thank you statement was posted by Sheehy’s official Facebook page at 3:27 a.m. His campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment Wednesday morning.

In Bozeman, at the Armory Hotel where Sheehy’s campaign gathered to watch returns Tuesday night, Sheehy wasn’t among the multiple Republican candidates who took the stage to make victory speeches within a few hours of polls closing. The Senate outcome didn’t start to take shape until Montana’s most populous urban counties began reporting results early Wednesday morning. In Gallatin and Yellowstone counties voters were still waiting in line to vote after midnight. ”

Montana’s U.S. Senate race between three-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican political newcomer Tim Sheehy has unfolded under watchful national eyes — and within a flood of record-setting expenditures — given the result’s potential to change the balance of partisan power in the U.S. Senate.

Republicans recaptured the majority in the Senate, prevailing in several races. Montana U.S. Senator Steve Daines was the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which recruits and supports party candidates for Senate. Unseating Tester was a key focus for Daines. 

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U.S. House MT-01 (Western District) (Click to go to live AP race results)

Katie Fairbanks is covering the race from Missoula and Justin Franz is covering it from Whitefish.

Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke appears to have fended off Democrat challenger Monica Tranel for the second time in the race for Montana’s western congressional seat. 

Zinke received 52% of the votes, or 129,740, to Tranel’s 45%, or 111,769 as of 7:15 a.m. Wednesday. Libertarian Dennis Hayes has received 7,087 votes. The AP called the race for Zinke early Wednesday morning. 

“I’m honored to be reelected by the fine people of Western Montana,” Zinke said in a statement sent at 3:30 a.m., about an hour before the AP called the race. “After four years of vicious lies from Monica Tranel, Montana voters saw through the false attacks and focused their votes on getting things done.” 

Tranel’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday morning. 

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For the second time in two years, Democrat Monica Tranel is challenging Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke for Montana’s western congressional seat. Libertarian Dennis Hayes, of Townsend, is also vying for the position. 

Zinke bested Tranel by four percentage points in 2022. 

Zinke, a former Navy SEAL from Whitefish, has moved further to the right throughout his political career. After two terms in the Montana Senate, Zinke won his first seat in Congress in 2014. He was reelected in 2016, but was soon appointed as Secretary of the Interior under president Donalid Trump. Zinke resigned in 2018 in the wake of several ethics investigations and worked in the private sector before running for the western Montana U.S. House district seat in 2022. 

Tranel, a Missoula-based energy attorney and former Olympic rower, ran for the Public Service Commission in 2004 as a Republican and in 2020 as a Democrat. She has spent much of the campaign focused on the state’s housing crisis, while criticizing Zinke. 

The candidates faced off in one debate on Oct. 12, sparring over housing, immigration and abortion.

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U.S. House MT-02 (Eastern District) (Click to go to live AP race results)

Tom Lutey is covering the race from Great Falls.

Democrat John Driscoll conceded Montana’s eastern district U.S. House race to Republican Troy Downing Wednesday morning.

The Associated Press called the race for Republican Troy Downing shortly after 11 p.m. Tuesday night. Downing, who is currently state auditor, gave a victory speech at the Billings DoubleTree hotel shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. 

“Commissioner Downing, congratulations on a clean win,” Driscoll said in a message to Downing he shared with media. “I did my effort in the best way I knew how and have no regrets. Tough job ahead of you. Good luck.” 

In a district where Republicans have held double-digit margins in federal elections for decades, the outcome wasn’t in doubt.

Downing said Wednesday morning that he is seeking a role in freshman House leadership and committee appointments in financial services and natural resources. 

Wednesday morning, Downing had 66% of the early count, or 174,247 votes. Democrat John Driscoll had 34% of the vote, or 89,545.

Incumbent Rep. Matt Rosendale, didn’t seek reelection. Former Democratic state legislator Reilly Neill, of Livingston, has run a write-in campaign.

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BALLOT INITIATIVES

CI-128 (Click to go to live AP race results)

Mara Silvers is covering the vote from Bozeman.

The Associated Press called the race in favor of the ‘yes’ vote for CI-128 just after 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday. With about 87% of statewide votes counted, support for CI-128 held a nearly 15 percentage-point margin over its opposition.

Supporters of Constitutional Initiative 128 were celebrating in Bozeman shortly before midnight, when the ballot issue held a nearly 20 percentage-point favorable lead. 

“I believe we have shown each other, and the country, what it means to have Montana values,” said Martha Fuller, CEO of Planned Parenthood of Montana, one of the groups supporting the constitutional amendment. “To look out for one another. To make decisions for ourselves. That life-saving abortion care is deeply private and only for us and our families, not the government, to decide.”

CI-128 amends the Montana Constitution to codify Montanans’ specific right to make decisions about their own pregnancy, including the right to an abortion. While abortion is currently legal in Montana under judicial interpretations of the constitutional right of privacy, backers of CI-128 say they want to strengthen Montana’s protections after the reversal of federal abortion rights in 2022. Nine other states had similar measures on the Nov. 5 ballot.

Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights is made up of Planned Parenthood of Montana, Forward Montana, the ACLU of Montana and The Fairness Project, a national ballot initiative group. 

Since its introduction last November, CI-128 has navigated a slew of legal hurdles. It has also drawn millions of dollars in donations from national PACs and wealthy out-of-state donors. 

Opponents of the measure include a mix of anti-abortion groups, conservative Catholic and Christian advocacy organizations, and prominent Republican candidates including Gov. Greg Gianforte and U.S. Senate contender Tim Sheehy.

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CI-126 (Click to go to live AP race results)

Alex Sakariassen is covering the vote from Missoula.

Just before 9:30 a.m., The Associated Press called the defeat of Constitutional Initiative 126. With 92% of the vote counted, opposition to the measure won out by a 4-point margin.

Backers of the initiative conceded CI-126’s defeat midday Wednesday, noting that even with tens of thousands of ballots still being counted in five major counties, there was no path to victory for the initiative. 

“We still believe open primaries are a powerful tool to hold politicians accountable and put the power over our elections back in the hands of voters, but they aren’t the only path forward,” MER board member and former Republican state lawmaker Frank Garner said in a statement. “We will continue to stand up for freedom and choice in our elections.”

Constitutional Initiative 126 would amend the Montana Constitution to replace the state’s currently separate party-specific June primary ballots with a single multi-party primary ballot, and the top four vote-getters in each race would advance to the general election. The change would apply only to elections for federal, statewide and legislative offices.

The initiative — a companion to CI-127 (more on that below) — was advanced by the political committee Montanans for Election Reform, which has argued that the change would curtail outside influence and partisan extremism in Montana’s primary contests. The group’s messaging efforts to voters this year have been buoyed by millions in contributions from the national nonprofit Article IV and other organizations, tying Montana’s own initiatives to a national movement that’s given rise to similar initiatives in other states this year.

Like CI-128, Montana’s 2024 abortion initiative, CI-126 experienced several legal hurdles on its way to the Nov. 5 ballot, including questions about whether signatures from voters listed as “inactive” were eligible to contribute to the initiative’s certification. Opponents including the Montana Legislature’s Freedom Caucus and Montanans for Fair Elections have sought to discourage voters from supporting CI-126, arguing that including all candidates on a single ballot would strengthen the power of outside money and partisan influence in primary races. 

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CI-127 (Click to go to live AP race results)

Alex Sakariassen is covering the vote from Missoula.

As of 8:43 a.m. Wednesday, The Associated Press had officially called defeat for Constitutional Initiative 127, with 61% of the votes counted so far opposing the measure.

Like CI-126, Constitutional Initiative 127 would amend the Montana Constitution to alter how elections for federal, statewide and legislative offices are run, in this case with a focus on the general election. The initiative would require that a general election candidate receive a majority of the cast vote to win, and would direct the Montana Legislature to adopt a system to address scenarios where no candidate wins more than 50% of the electorate.

What such a legislatively designed system might look like remains to be seen. Lawmakers could replicate strategies from other states that have implemented run-off elections or ranked-choice voting, by which voters rank general election candidates in order of preference and election officials eliminate low-performing candidates until a clear majority is established. Montanans for Election Reform argues that a majority-vote requirement will, like CI-126, reduce outside influence and partisan extremism by requiring candidates to appeal to a broader voter base, though the group has acknowledged that the unknowns associated with how the Legislature might handle its CI-127 directive have been challenging for voters to grasp.

CI-127 met with fewer procedural hurdles last fall than Montana’s other two 2024 constitutional initiatives, but was caught up in the same legal battle over inactive voter signatures this summer. And the same groups opposing CI-126 have taken issue with CI-127’s implications, with the Montana Legislature’s Freedom Caucus recently circulating an animated ad on social media asserting criticizing ranked-choice voting.

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STATE OFFICIALS

Governor (Click to go to live AP race results)

Mara Silvers and Amanda Eggert are covering the race from Bozeman.

The Associated Press called the governor’s race in favor of Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Gianforte shortly after 8:00 p.m. Tuesday, even before major counties reported vote outcomes in Gianforte’s contest against Democrat Ryan Busse. Speaking to a crowded Republican watch party in Bozeman, Gianforte celebrated that decision and welcomed the chance to govern the state for “another four years.” 

Gianforte’s victory was backed up by results from Montana’s most populated counties as voting results continued to trickle in Wednesday morning. With more than 80% of statewide votes reported, Gianforte held a roughly 20 percentage point lead over his Democratic opponent.

In a Wednesday morning statement, the Busse campaign conceded the race and congratulated Gianforte and his running mate, Kristin Juras.

“It is a high honor to fight for the Montana we love and for a future worth handing down to our kids. We were inspired by the many Montanans whose lives and livelihoods have changed in recent years. We fought for freedom and privacy, for public lands, and for lower taxes,” the statement said. “To all Montanans who supported us along the way: thank you. Getting your Montana back is still more important than ever.”

Gianforte, a former tech company founder and former U.S. House representative from Bozeman, has campaigned as a champion of Montana’s economic future and an effective conservative leader. He has listed income and business tax cuts, investments in behavioral health services, public lands management and a decrease in the state’s foster care caseload among his first-term achievements.  

Busse criticized the governor for failing to address last year’s sharp increase in residential property taxes, signing multiple abortion restrictions into law during his first term, not meaningfully improving public education funding and teacher pay, and weakening the services of state agencies such as Fish, Wildlife and Parks and the Department of Public Health and Human Services. 

The two candidates appeared in only one joint public debate forum this election cycle.

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Secretary of State (Click to go to live AP race results)

Alex Sakariassen is covering the race from Missoula.

AP called the race in Republican incumbent Christi Jacobsen’s favor shortly after midnight Wednesday. As of Wednesday morning, she was leading Democratic challenger Jesse Mullen with 62% of the counted vote. Mullen released a short concession statement just before 6 a.m. congratulating Jacobsen on her victory and wishing her success in her second term.

Previously, shortly after 9 p.m., with the Associated Press reporting less than 10% of the vote counted in Montana,Jacobsen took the stage at an event in Helena to deliver an acceptance speech declaring herself the winner of her race for a second term as the state’s top election official. According to a video of the speech captured by NonStop Local and shared with MTFP, Jacobsen told supporters, “this victory is ours.” 

“Tonight you have shown that you want to keep Montana’s future in our hands, and I will continue to defend your trust,” Jacobsen said. “Montanans approve of my job performance. I think the numbers speak for itself.”

Jacobsen’s campaign did not respond to an email seeking further comment on her declaration of victory. The Associated Press had at that point not yet called the race.  Mullen confirmed that he had posted a concession on social media but removed it.

“We’ll wait for the official results before we make our official statement,” Mullen told MTFP in a phone call.

Jacobsen’s campaign formally echoed her declaration in an email release shortly after 11 p.m., calling it a “decisive victory.” The email claimed Mullen had officially conceded via email, citing Mullen’s since-deleted concession tweet. At the time, the AP still had not called the race, with 31% of the vote counted statewide.

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Republican incumbent Christi Jacobsen is seeking to fend off challenges from Democrat Jesse Mullen and Libertarian John Lamb. The results of the election will determine which will spend the next four years as the state’s top election official and head of the office’s business services division, which caters to the registration and filing needs of Montana business owners. The secretary of state also sits on the Montana Land Board, voting on matters related to state-owned public lands.

Jacobsen began her term in January 2021 after serving as deputy secretary of state under her Republican predecessor, Corey Stapleton. During her tenure, Montana’s elections have come under fire from conservative lawmakers and activists who allege the electoral system suffers from significant vulnerabilities. Jacobsen rebuffs such claims and says Montana’s elections are a “gold standard” for election integrity in the U.S. Jacobsen is also in the process of appealing to the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn a Montana Supreme Court ruling that struck down several 2021 election laws Jacobsen supported, among them the elimination of same-day voter registration.

Mullen came to the race from a background in journalism, having co-founded the Mullen Newspaper Company, which now owns roughly 20 newspapers across the Rocky Mountain West. A Deer Lodge resident, Mullen has said he intends to instill more transparency and accountability in the secretary of state’s office and support the needs of local election workers. He’s criticized Jacobsen’s defense of Republican-led laws deemed unconstitutional by state courts and argues that the functionality of online services for Montana businesses has suffered under her charge.

John Lamb owns and operates two Montana businesses and ran as the Libertarian candidate in Montana’s western congressional district race in 2022. Lamb has said his goal is to approach the office in a nonpartisan manner and continue administering secure elections and robust business services to Montanans regardless of their political beliefs. Like Mullen, Lamb disagrees with Jacobsen on several key positions in election policy, including same-day voter registration, which he said he supports. 

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Attorney General (Click to go to live AP race results)

Tom Lutey is covering the race from Great Falls.

AP called the race in favor of Republican Attorney General Austin Knudsen at 2:36 a.m.

Knudsen held a strong lead in his race against Democrat Ben Alke throughout the night. With 499,823 votes counted shortly after 8 a.m. Wednesday, the attorney general had 60% of the vote to Alke’s 40%.

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Montana’s attorney general race features an incumbent self-branded as a defender of women and children versus a challenger who says the state’s justice department has been thrown into chaos under current leadership.

Attorney General Austin Knudsen presents himself as a hands-on defender of the weak, emphasizing the multiple lawsuits he’s brought with other Republican attorneys general against the federal agencies of Democratic President Joe Biden. 

Democratic challenger Ben Alke argues that behind Knudsen’s rhetoric there’s disarray at Montana’s Department of Justice. A Helena native who now practices law in Bozeman, Alke points to Knudsen’s low marks as a manager by the Montana Highway Patrol and the attorney general’s hearing last month on 41 counts of professional misconduct, which led to a Commission on Practice recommendation, pending a decision by the Montana Supreme Court, to suspend Knudsen’s law license for 90 days.

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Superintendent of Public Instruction (Click to go to live AP race results)

Alex Sakariassen is covering the race from Missoula.

The AP called the race in favor of Republican Susie Hedalen at 3:37 a.m. Wednesday. As of Wednesday morning, Hedalen was leading Democrat opponent, Shannon O’Brien, with 60% of the vote.

Around 11 p.m. Tuesday, Hedalen declared herself Montana’s “state superintendent elect” in a speech to supporters in Bozeman. Hedalen said she looks forward to “collaborating with parents, teachers and school leaders across the state of Montana to bring our education system to the next level.”

“My promise to you is this: I will work tirelessly to honor our families, support our teachers and ensure every child in Montana, from the smallest rural schools to our largest districts, has the opportunity to succeed,” Hedalen said. She also vowed to protect “Montana values,” adding, “yes, that means we do not allow boys in girls sports.”

In a phone call with MTFP after her speech, Hedalen reiterated she would advocate for policies that “uphold the integrity of girls’ sports.” She said she’d spent the past week traveling from St. Regis to Wibaux, visiting schools and talking to teachers and parents, and was “grateful” for the support she’d received. 

O’Brien’s campaign released a concession statement just after 8 a.m. Wednesday, with O’Brien writing it had been “an honor” to travel the state visiting with teachers, students and parents committed to public education.

“Unfortunately we came up short,” O’Brien wrote, “but I wish Susie the best as she takes on the challenges our kids and schools are facing.”

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With Republican state Superintendent Elsie Arntzen approaching the end of her second and final term, the Nov. 5 ballot will decide who heads Montana’s Office of Public Instruction next: veteran Democratic lawmaker Shannon O’Brien or local school administrator turned Republican gubernatorial appointee Susie Hedalen.

Both candidates have deep ties to education, each having worked as a public school teacher in the past. O’Brien later served as education policy adviser to former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, and has spent the past two legislative sessions crafting bills on several education committees as a state senator from Missoula. Hedalen, a former OPI deputy superintendent under Arntzen, is currently superintendent of the Townsend School District — the most recent of several Montana districts she’s led — and serves as co-chair of Montana’s Board of Public Education.

While Hedalen and O’Brien have each taken issue with the other’s qualifications, the two express similar core values when it comes to the K-12 public school system: valuing teachers, supporting students, recognizing the interests and contributions of parents. O’Brien has pledged to leverage her legislative network to press for more funding for education; Hedalen has vowed to apply the insights she’s gleaned in local schools when addressing their daily challenges. Both have prioritized the need to rebuild the Office of Public instruction, an agency that’s experienced considerable staff turnover and public controversy over the past eight years.

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State Auditor (Click to go to live AP race results)

Amanda Eggert is covering the race from Bozeman.

The AP has called the state auditor race in favor of Republican James Brown, who led Democrat John Repke with 62% of the vote as of 6:45 a.m. Monday morning. 

In an emailed statement sent at 9:45 p.m. Tuesday night, Brown wrote that he “ran for this public office because I am dedicated not only to protecting the last best place, and our Montana way of life; but also to protecting my fellow Montanans who I strongly believe are the last, best, people on earth.”

“I will build on the solid record of my predecessor, Commissioner Troy Downing, to promote consumer education and consumer advocacy, work to lower insurance costs by promoting competition, reduce the regulatory burden on Montana businesses, and hold bad actors accountable,” Brown said.

As state auditor, Brown will regulate the insurance industry, investigate fraud targeting seniors and other vulnerable citizens, and assume a seat on the Montana Land Board, which oversees the state trust lands that contribute income to Montana’s public schools.

Brown is currently president of the state Public Service Commission, which regulates monopoly utilities operating in Montana. Brown has foregrounded his rural Montana roots — he graduated from Beaverhead County High School — in campaign materials. He also highlighted the regulatory experience he garnered during his four-year term on the PSC and his familiarity with the challenges small business owners face. An attorney by trade, Brown maintains a small law practice in Helena.

Repke holds a master’s degree in business finance and has four decades of private-sector experience working for companies including SmartLam, a timber products manufacturer, and Allied Waste, a Fortune 500 company working in garbage and recycling. In campaign materials, Repke argued that he has the independence, experience and political will to protect Montana consumers from the threats posed by surging insurance rates and the pending potential sunset of Medicaid expansion.

Repke could not be immediately reached for comment on the race’s outcome Wednesday morning.

Brown will take the place of Downing, who on Tuesday night secured the seat to represent Montana’s eastern district in the U.S. House of Representatives.  

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Montana Supreme Court (Click to go to live AP race results)

Mara Silvers is covering the court races from Bozeman.

AP race calls made Wednesday morning named Broadwater County Attorney Cory Swanson as the winner in the race for Montana Supreme Court chief justice over former federal magistrate judge Jerry Lynch and state district court judge Katherine Bidegaray of Sidney as the winner for the court’s other open seat over state district court judge Dan Wilson of Kalispell.

As of 9:30 Wednesday, Swanson and Bidegaray were both leading their respective races with 54% of the vote.

The candidates were vying to replace retiring Chief Justice Mike McGrath and associate Justice Dirk Sandefur. 

While judges and judicial candidates are required to be nonpartisan, third-party groups have historically flocked to judicial races to paint candidates as supportive or hostile to their respective political interests. 

This cycle, the Montana GOP has been one of the most prominent groups spending money on messaging that supports Swanson and Wilson and opposes Lynch and Bidegaray. Progressive interest groups, on the other hand, have poured funding into casting Lynch and Bidegaray as defenders of public lands, abortion rights and the Montana Constitution more broadly, while depicting Swanson and Wilson as threats to those causes.

In public forums across the state, all four candidates have repeatedly said that, if elected, support and opposition from outside interest groups will not sway their judicial decision-making. 

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Montana Public Service Commission (Click to go to live AP race results)

Amanda Eggert is covering the races from Bozeman.

All three seats on the Public Service Commission, which regulates monopoly utility companies like NorthWestern Energy, have been won by Republican candidates this cycle. As of 9:45a.m. Wednesday morning, the AP had called the District 4 race for incumbent commissioner Jennifer Fielder, the District 2 race for longtime lawmaker Brad Molnar, and the District 3 race for Jeff Welborn, a termed-out state lawmaker. 

Fielder, a former lawmaker from Thompson Falls who has served as the commission’s vice chair since 2021, garnered 55% of the vote to Evans’ 45%. Evans is an environmental health professional who gathered the requisite voter signatures to appear on the ballot as an independent candidate. District 4 encompasses Montana’s far northwestern corner and includes parts of the Missoula, Bitterroot and Flathead valleys.

In District 3, which includes all of southwestern Montana and a slice of central Montana, longtime Republican lawmaker and trailer dealership owner Jeff Welborn of Dillon secured a 25 percentage-point lead over Democrat Leonard Williams, an electrician and union organizer who lives in Butte. This was Williams’ first bid for elected office. 

Welborn told MTFP in a phone interview Wednesday morning that the voters have spoken and thanked Williams for running a clean, straightforward race.

“I plan to jump in with both feet and try to get myself right up to speed,” Welborn told MTFP of his plan for the next two months.

Wednesday morning, Susan Bilo, a Democrat who teaches courses on renewable energy technologies in Bozeman conceded the race to longtime Republican lawmaker and former PSC commissioner Brad Molnar, from Laurel. At 9:56 a.m., the AP called the race for Molnar with 96% of votes counted.

In a Wednesday morning interview, Molnar said he would prepare for his upcoming term — his third on the PSC —  by engaging with the lengthy dockets before the commission. He plans to attend a mid-November meeting where incoming commissioners will have an opportunity to ask questions of agency staff, he said.

“(Many) hearings are being done by the sitting commission and the new commission will be the one casting votes, so there will be a strong effort to get us up to speed,” he said.

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Montana Legislature

Eric Dietrich, Zeke Lloyd and Jacob Olness are monitoring legislative races from Helena and Billings.

Both Republicans and Democrats expect the state’s new legislative district map, which was redrawn following the 2020 census and formally adopted last year, to give Democrats a chance to edge into Republicans’ current legislative supermajority. 

Neither party expects Democrats to have a viable shot at winning an outright majority in either the House, where Republicans currently hold 68 of 100 seats, or the Senate, where Republicans hold 34 of 50 seats. A narrowed Republican majority would give Democrats more negotiating leverage in next year’s legislative session, particularly on issues that could drive a wedge between the hardline and comparatively moderate wings of the large Republican caucus.

Because most of the state’s legislative districts tilt heavily toward one of the two major parties, the composition of the 2025 Legislature is likely to be determined by the outcomes of a relatively small number of races. Based on political data from Dave’s Redistricting and interviews with Democratic and Republican observers, MTFP will be watching the following races in particular as results come in:

MONTANA SENATE (Click to go to live AP race results)

• Whitefish, Columbia Falls and West Glacier’s Senate District 2, where current Democratic state Rep. Dave Fern is facing Republican Doug Adams. As of early Wednesday, Fern was leading Adams by about 600 votes with an estimated 85% of the vote counted.
• Hardin and the Crow Reservation’s Senate District 21, where longtime Democratic state lawmaker Sharon Stewart Peregoy is facing Hardin business owner Gayle George Lammers. The AP has called the race for Lammers, who was leading by a 57-43 margin with nearly all votes counted early Wednesday.
• Downtown and South Billings’ Senate District 24, where Republican state Rep. Mike Yakawich is facing Democrat Mark Nicholson. As of early Wednesday, Yakawich was leading Nicholson by about 590 votes with an estimated 97% of the vote counted.

MONTANA HOUSE (Click to go to live AP race results)

• North Whitefish and West Glacier’s House District 3, where former Democratic state representative Debo Powers is facing Republican Cathy Mitchell. As of early Wednesday, Powers was leading Mitchell by about 200 votes with 85% of the vote counted.
• House District 4, which spans Columbia Falls and southeast Whitefish, where Republican Lyn Bennett is facing Democrat Lindsey Jordan. As of early Wednesday, Bennett was leading Jordan by about 180 votes with 85% of the vote counted.
• Downtown Great Falls’ House District 19, where Republican Hannah Trebas is facing Democrat Jane Weber. As of early Wednesday, Weber was leading Trebas by about 300 votes with 99% of the vote counted.
• House District 20 in east-central Great Falls, where Republican Melissa Nikolakakos is facing Democrat Rina Fontana Moore. As of early Wednesday, Nikolakakos was leading Moore by about 350 votes with 99% of the vote counted.
• House District 22 in eastern Great Falls, where current Republican state Rep. George Nikolakakos faced  Democrat Ron Paulick.The AP called the race for Rep. George Nikolakakos at 12:37 a.m.
• House District 23 in south Great Falls, where Republican Eric Tilleman is facing Democrat Sandor Hopkins. As of early Wednesday, Tilleman was leading Hopkins by about 700 votes with 99% of the vote counted.
• Havre’s House District 27, where Democratic state Rep. Paul Tuss is facing former Republican lawmaker Ed Hill in a Republican-leaning district. As of early Wednesday, Tuss was leading Hill by about 275 votes with 99% of the vote counted.
• South-central Billings’ House District 48, where Republican Curtis Schomer is facing Democrat Anne Ross. As of early Wednesday, Schomer was leading Ross by about 610 votes with 97% of the vote counted.
• House District 57, which stretches from eastern Bozeman around Livingston to Cooke City, where current Republican state Rep. Marty Malone is facing Democrat Scott Rosenzweig. As of early Wednesday, Malone was leading Rosenzweig by about 615 votes with 90% of the vote counted.
• Lolo’s House District 89, where two current state representatives, Republican Lyn Hellegaard and Democrat Mark Thane, are vying for a single seat. As of early Wednesday, Thane was leading Hellegaard by about 650 votes with 95% of the vote counted.

We’ll update this listing with race outcomes as they become clear.

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