In today’s Fantasy Life newsletter, presented by Guillotine competitions:

The NFL trade deadline is still a week away, but we’ve already enjoyed a series of blockbuster moves:

• Amari Kuiper to the bills
• Davante Adams to the Jets
• DeAndre Hopkins to the chefs

And if the reports are true, we may not be done with WRs on the move yet.

Adam Schefter projects as Panthers WR Diontae Johnson must be traded before the deadline.

It makes absolute sense for the hopeless Panthers (who can’t even decide who to start at QB) and the veteran WR to go their separate ways, so now it’s time to speculate where he could end up.

Hilariously, one of the most WR-needy teams (the Steelers) isn’t eligible to trade back for Johnson.

Last week I brought up the Bucs as a team that could be in the market for a WR – and Johnson would be a perfect replacement for Chris Godwin.

The best matchup, however, might be the Texans. They’re probably going to lose Stefon Diggs to a season-ending injury and Johnson could slide right in and fill his vacated targets immediately.

With Johnson likely gone, there is a WR sleeper on the Panthers that absolutely needs to be put away. Check out Kendall’s waiver thread column for the goods…

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Dwain’s usage report: There is life in Cleveland
2. Kendall Valenzuelas Week 9 Waiver Wire Additions
3. Water cooler: Injury updates
4. by Ian Hartitz Sheesh week 8 report

Week 9 Usage Report

Through Dwain McFarland

The Browns’ receivers have a life with Jameis Winston.

Deshaun Watson averaged 170 yards per game in his six full games this season. Historically, this type of passing production has made things extremely difficult for a receiving corps. Since 2011, there have only been 17 teams that have averaged fewer than 175 yards per game, and in fantasy they have produced zero top-24 WRs.

Enter James Winstonwho shredded the Ravens for 334 yards and three passing TDs. Was the matchup ideal? Yes. Can we expect Winston to throw for 300 yards every week? No. Make no mistake, though: This is a huge upgrade for the Browns’ passing attack that is here to stay. Over his career, Winston has delivered 277 yards in games playing at least 90% of the snaps.

Below is a table illustrating how often we get a WR1 (1 to 12), WR2 (13 to 24), WR3 or WR4 season finish based on a team’s passing yards per game, based on data since 2011. With Watson, the Browns were in the bottom bracket, where 0% of WRs enjoyed a WR1 or WR2 campaign. With Winston, however, the second and third buckets are reasonable targets for this attack.

Carlo Tilman

Tillman was the Browns’ third-round pick out of Tennessee in 2023. Last week he was one of the top waiver wire writers, labeled as a WR3 with upside if Winston were to start. Tillman has scored 16.1 and 28.9 fantasy points in his last two games without Amari Kuiper.

During that period, it has a delightful usage score of 8.9. He ranks second on the team in route participation (87%) and targets (24%), while leading the team in air yards (35%) and end zone targets (38%).

No other WR has increased more in utilization rating over the past four games, and his historical comps have been excellent.

• WR1 to 12 finishes: 84%
• WR13 to 24 finishes: 14%
• WR25 to 36 finishes: 2%

We only have a two-game sample, so we want to be careful with the comps, but it at least tells us what his upside looks like, which is a WR1.

Tillman UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status and provides WR1 benefits. He is available in 80% of Yahoo leagues and could be the WAIVER WIRE ADD OF THE YEAR. This is an all-in FAAB moment (50% plus), especially if you need WR help.

Elijah Moore

Moore has been a huge disappointment in fantasy since teasing us as a rookie in 2021 with 18.9 points per game over a six-week stretch. However, he has never played with a quality quarterback and leads the team with a target share of 25% without Kuiper. While his air yards (19%) and end zone targets (13%) aren’t as strong as Tillman’s, Moore has a good rapport with Winston and has a strong usage rating of 7.0.

I’m a little more skeptical about the high end of Moore’s comp group, as we have a multi-year track record of underperformance. However, he flashed as a rookie and is young enough to be open.

• WR1 to 12 finishes: 6%
• WR13 to 24 finishes: 35%
• WR25 to 36 finishes: 37%
• WR37 to 48 finishes: 21%

Moore UPGRADES to high-end WR4 status, and the benefits of WR3 are not unrealistic. Moore is available in 99% of leagues. He is a viable addition in mid-to-deeper leagues (10-15% FAAB).

Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy didn’t live up to his first-round draft capital as an NFL WR, but he’ll get another chance to bounce back as Winston revitalizes the passing attack. The fifth-year WR leads the team in route participation (99%) since Cooper’s departure, but his target share is third (16%). Jeudy has a usage score of 5.7, with his compositions struggling to find relevance, but there are some positive outliers.

• WR 1 to 12 finishes: 0%
• WR 13 to 24 finishes: 5%
• WR 25 to 36 finishes: 15%
• WR 37 to 48 finishes: 37%

There’s a chance Jeudy will be in the mix more over the next few games, but his target shares with Winston closely mirror what we’ve seen for his career. Still, he’s a young former first-round pick with playmaking ability when he has the ball in his hands.

Jeudy UPGRADED into booming WR4 territory and has an outside shot at WR3 production.

Nerd note: I’ve seen a lot of talk about the upcoming schedule against the Chargers, Saints, Steelers, and Broncos as cause for concern about these WRs. Don’t let that put you off them, especially Tillman. As far as schedule goes, we only care about outliers (good and bad), and the Broncos are the only qualifiers on that list. The Chargers look good on paper, but have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (LV, CAR, PIT, KC, DEN, ARI, NO).

More useful information about the usage report

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Week 9 Exemption from thread withdrawals

by Kendall Valenzuela

Jameis Winston, QB, Browns (6% selected)

Well, hello James Winston! The Browns lost Deshaun Watson before the season, but it was clear on Sunday that Winston took this team to another level. The Browns scored 29 points behind Winston’s three touchdown passes and 334 yards against the Baltimore Ravens.

Watson hadn’t reached 200 yards in a game all season, but with Winston at quarterback the offense felt energized and plenty of offensive weapons kept the fun going. The ceiling is always there with Jameis for a 300-yard passing game every week and that was something they didn’t have with Watson and why we need to upgrade this offense. The Browns will take on the Chargers before their bye in Week 10. Call on Jameis if you need quarterback help going into this week.

Isaac Guerendo, RB, 49ers (8% selected)

Jordan Mason went down with a shoulder injury against the Cowboys on Sunday night, but recovered Isaac Guerendo is purely a stock game. The 49ers have a bye in Week 9 and it has been reported Christian McCaffrey is still on track to return to the team in week 10. We never want injuries, but if something were to happen upon McCaffrey’s return (and if Mason is unavailable), Guerendo would get a lot of work.

More additions before week 9

🤝 Dwain and Ian break the Usage report and waiver objectives.

😆 Ian, Chris and Charch all get into it Week 8 Summary and exaggerated reactions.

🚑️Injury updates. Brian Thomas Jr., Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Tee Higgins, CMC, DK Metcalf,

❓Goodbye weeks and injuries, are you having a hard time? The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool is here to help.

🙌 There were a number of breakout players on National Tight Ends Day. Can you trust them?

🤔 Can the Colts make a move at QB? Time will tell.

🤩 Look who’s a Commanders fan. Okay okay okay.

Week 8 Sheesh Report: A bit outside

Through Ian Hartitz

The Ravens had a boring Sunday afternoon

There were a number of factors that led to Baltimore losing to the James Winston— led by Browns in Week 8. A lot of that was simply Cleveland putting forth its best team performance of the season, but let’s be honest: the Ravens shot themselves in the foot several times throughout 60 minutes of action.

Specifically:

Lamar Jackson missed an opening Zay Flowers for a potential 31-yard touchdown on a second-quarter drive that ended in a field goal.

Jackson threw one wide open Isaiah Probably on what appeared to have a chance to go 86 yards to the house on a fourth-quarter drive that ended in a punt.

Rashod Bateman committed one of the boldest drops of the season by allowing a potential 50-yard gain to bounce straight off his facemask and fall incomplete. To be fair, the sun was apparently shining in his eyes and causing the sheesh.

The Ravens defense dropped not one, not two, but three separate interceptions on drives that ultimately ended with the Browns scoring 10 points. Baltimore also dropped three interceptions against the Bills in Week 4; the Ravens are the only defense to accomplish this “feat” in 2024 and currently have eight dropped INTs in the league – no other defense has more than five.

Not great for a team that previously ranked high thanks to five straight wins while largely looking like one of the best teams in the NFL. Say it all with me: Sheesh.

Of course Jackson and Co. not the only team undone by a few lame moments in Week 8.

Cut Anthony Richardson a little slack

Because his receivers didn’t really help him in Week 8. Overall, both were WR Adonai Mitchell (from 28 yards out) and RB Tyler Goodson (25) failed to corral well-thrown targets into the end zone Anthony Richardson That should yielded six points.

There were a handful of other close calls by Colts pass catchers that unfortunately weren’t completed. Overall, the Indy receivers came up with An achieved eight contested targets in Week 8, and they have the sixth-worst percentage of the season (41%).

The Broncos also stood out as pass catchers who let several potential big plays pass through their hands, but Bo Nix still managed to play a pretty damn good game.

Not ideal! Of course, these weren’t the only passing games that left quite a bit of meat on the bone.

More sheesh-worthy moments from week 8