SEATTLE — For the Denver Broncos and Bo Nix, the journey begins in the Emerald City, unlike in ‘The Wizard of Oz’, where the green spires marked the end of the journey down the yellow brick road.

Long-term development remains a priority. But along the way, the Broncos want to win as much as possible. And wins can build confidence, which in turn can increase the chances of maximizing Nix’s first contract window — which opens the moment he walks through the tunnel at Lumen Field.

At the NFL Scouting Combine in February, Sean Payton spoke confidently about how the Broncos’ evaluation could give them a better chance of avoiding the mistakes teams make at quarterback. With that in mind, I asked Payton on Friday about his methodology and how he believes it could help Nix avoid some of the pitfalls that befall young quarterbacks.

“That’s a good question,” Payton replied.

And immediately he remembered a conversation he’d had a few minutes earlier with quarterbacks coach David Webb and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The topic? Giving Nix concepts he’s comfortable with.

“It’s important that — especially early in the season — (you focus on) the things that he’s really comfortable with,” Payton said.

And that also means that structures must be created that help.

“When I tell the players, ‘Man, we’ve got to play fast,’ we as coaches have to give them the menu that makes that possible,” Payton said. “Too much can lead to some hesitation about what we’re doing.”

And therein lies the rub. The Broncos can do a lot of things. But with a rookie quarterback, they may not be able to do everything.

“I think there’s that balance and throughout the week, last night, the night before, of how much (is too much) with a younger quarterback,” Payton said.

Of course, the menu was limited last year, too — and that was with a 12-year veteran. The midfield was largely unavailable. Watching Nix this summer, that problem goes away. Still, anything the Broncos can do to support Nix can help.

And with that, Payton returned to a point he made when I asked him in April how you can help a young quarterback.

“I come back to the two really good allies, our good defense and our good running game,” he said. “When those two are struggling, that’s when a lot more is put on that player.”

And most rookie quarterbacks who fail early don’t have that kind of support. Whether the Broncos have enough remains to be seen.

Sean Payton asked how the Broncos’ QB methodology can help Bo Nix avoid some of the pitfalls other QBs often face.

A key point: “It’s important that we focus, especially early in the season, on the things that he really feels comfortable with.” photo.twitter.com/niuuWgoyUT

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) September 7, 2024

The Broncos need to be different, because the trends heading into this weekend aren’t favorable — at least not when it comes to the micro-outcome of the first game for a quarterback thrown in at the deep end.

8

Consecutive games lost by teams with a rookie first-round quarterback making his debut as a starter, going back to Joe Burrow with the Cincinnati Bengals to open the 2020 season. This includes Justin Herbert’s Week 2 start in 2020, so for Week 1 purposes only, the losing streak in this scenario is seven games.

16-33-1

The record among teams since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 that had a rookie quarterback on the field in their first regular-season game.

Those teams have lost seven straight and are 0-7-1 since Sam Darnold and the New York Jets defeated Detroit 48-17 to open the 2018 season. Darnold’s cause was helped by five takeaways, a defensive touchdown and another on a punt return. Such an outcome would be great for the Broncos on Sunday, but it’s not a reasonable expectation; in the past five years, only one team — Las Vegas vs. the Chargers last December — has had two return touchdowns and five takeaways in the same game.

Since 2018, teams with rookie starting quarterbacks in Week 1 are 6-18-1. There is no true home-field advantage here; the score is 4-9 away and 2-9-1 at home.

32

Historically, this is the amount of pass attempts you would rather not have with a rookie starting quarterback in Week 1.

Since the AFL-NFL merger, teams that allowed their rookie to attempt 32 passes in Week 1 are 2-20-1, while they go 14-13 when they limit their quarterback to 31 or fewer attempts. The two exceptions in the win column were Carson Wentz in 2016 with the Philadelphia Eagles (37 attempts) and Geno Smith with the New York Jets in 2013 (38 attempts).

This plays right into Payton’s point about the running game and defense. Getting cruising altitude in both areas allows the Broncos to stick to their game plan and not get thrown off balance in a furious attempt to rally.

Another number that matters: average per attempt. Teams that start with rookie quarterbacks since the merger are 9-2 when those quarterbacks average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. One passer who did that was Archie Manning in 1971 with New Orleans.

BUT WITH A BRONCOS STARTING QB IN WEEK 1, REMEMBER THIS…

Also, don’t fall into the trap of banking too much on the first start. Nine rookie quarterbacks since the merger have posted passer ratings of at least 100.0 entering Week 1, and the final results have been mixed.

Marcus Mariota had a perfect passer rating in his Week 1 debut in 2015; he has established himself as a long-term backup. Robert Griffin III tore up the Saints in 2012, posting a 139.9 passer rating; injuries saw him decline rapidly. And the other names on this list are Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, EJ Manuel, Mac Jones, Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz. Only Ryan and Newton have been long-term successes.

This is a start, nothing more. Defenders will adapt. And so will Nix and Broncos coaches.