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Movie Break: About the Warriors rediscovering their defensive mojo while running out of offensive juice against the Thunder
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Movie Break: About the Warriors rediscovering their defensive mojo while running out of offensive juice against the Thunder

While the Golden State Warriors may have entered their matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder undefeated without Stephen Curry playing a single minute, the numbers with him off the floor tell a pretty telling – and all too familiar – story.

In 783 non-garbage possessions, the Warriors have scored a paltry 105.7 points per 100 possessions without Curry on the floor. That would be the equivalent of the 28th foulest offense in the NBA, according to Cleaning The Glass. This is a testament to the problem they’ve had since time immemorial: the lack of a serviceable scorer behind Curry who can act as ballast when he’s on the bench, or more importantly when he has to miss games.

That story was no different tonight against the Thunder – meaning the only way the Warriors had a chance to win was against such an elite team with an elite defense (first in the league in opponent points per 100 possessions) and an elite shotmaker in Shai Gilgeous -Alexander would lock up in the half court and generate a lot of transition possessions. That proved to be a tough task to start the game, where the Thunder were able to hold on to 39 points to the Warriors’ 23 in the first quarter. Those 39 points allowed translated to a horrific 150 points per 100 possessions.

The good news is that after allowing 39 points in the first quarter, the Warriors were able to hold the Thunder to just 66 points over the next three quarters. They were able to reduce points allowed per 100 possessions to 104 points per 100 possessions by the end of the game – matching the best defense in the league (equal to the Thunder’s own points allowed per 100 this season belongings are allowed). On the defensive side, a switch was flipped in the form of diversified coverages, more energy and a sense of urgency, perhaps fueled by the loss of their superstar.

This possession below at 8:26 of the third quarter seemed otherwise unremarkable, but the tenor of the Warriors’ defense in the second half changed when Jerry Stackhouse threw a switch: the full-court ball pressure flowed into a 2-3 zone in the half field:

Stackhouse pressed all the right buttons and his players responded with effort and execution after two games where their defense fell apart in the second half. This was perhaps most evident in the way they defended themselves in scramble situations where they had to be in rotation. The Thunder – good for moving the ball and creating good looks for everyone on the floor – saw their windows closed almost immediately:

The golden equation for the Warriors this season – especially in this Curry-less version – has been to make stops, run in transition and create offense against an undrafted defense, a defense that has had a lot of success this season when they do took action. half-court (84.8 points allowed per 100 half-court possessions). An easy way to take that metric out of the equation is to simply not let them defend in the half court as much as possible:

It also helps a lot if they can get the best version of Draymond Green on defense. Green’s value lies not just in being a roamer and communicator on the floor; his ability to play multiple coverages, diagnose which one needs to be played at any given time, and execute accordingly is unparalleled. The more committed and effective he is as a defender, the more likely it is that the rest of the defense will follow suit:

But – and this is where the bad news comes in – the Warriors were forced to score just 103.1 points per 100 possessions in the entire game, no doubt fueled by Curry’s absence and the lack of a consistent secondary scorer who could create buckets. for themselves and for teammates) without much schematic help. While Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga can certainly fill that role with their ability to apply pressure to the rim, shortcomings (lack of a reliable handle, for example) prevent them from ever filling that role to the highest degree.

Kerr has had to help them get to the rim by creating downhill situations for them. For Wiggins, it was all about getting him moving off the ball to create an attacking lane:

For Kuminga, it created situations where the defense was confused with the coverage they wanted to play. A reverse pick-and-roll causes hesitation for Gilgeous-Alexander, who doesn’t want to switch to Kuminga. This allows Kuminga to attack the rim with an open path:

However, such instances were not enough to provide the Warriors with the necessary juice they needed to oust the Thunder. They remained scoreless from the 5:45 mark of the fourth quarter until the 20-second mark, while the Thunder, who couldn’t score much of their own, were able to tap into Gilgeous-Alexander’s talents to make the difference.

While the defensive silver lining is something to be optimistic about — and while Curry won’t be out for too long, considering he’s expected to play Saturday against the Phoenix Suns — the Warriors will have to address the issue of not having someone who can create scoring chances in a pinch outside of Curry. At 36 years old and likely facing more sit-out situations like this due to aches and pains, Curry can’t shoulder the scoring burden on his own. For the Warriors to reach that next level, they need someone who can level the defense without much need for a schematic crutch.