An area of ​​low pressure produces disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves into an environment marginally favorable for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is possible this weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives this system an average of 40 percent chance of developing.

Heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected for Puerto Rico and other nearby Caribbean islands this weekend regardless of how this system develops.

At this time, the system is expected to weaken by the time it approaches Cuba as it becomes engulfed in dry air. A huge trough around a dominant high pressure system, the same one that is bringing us cold weather this week, also extends through Florida, simply pushing this system out to sea and keeping it far from Florida or the Southeast.

“Although the storm is producing fairly deep convection at this time, its circulation appears to be more disrupted than Tuesday,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist and meteorologist at Colorado State University. “Most models have really rolled back their development since a few days ago.”

Below you can see how the models are doing on forecast storm intensity, with most models agreeing that Tropical Storm Nadine could be named this weekend, which would make it the 14th named storm of the season. The 14th storm usually doesn’t form until November 19 during a typical Atlantic hurricane season.

Another broad area of ​​low pressure has produced a cluster of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean. There is a slim 20 percent chance of tropical development with this system as it drifts westward and may even run out of ocean real estate before heavy rains come to Central America.

The same environment is present – ​​dry air and a deep trough – that will likely prevent this storm from strengthening while keeping it well away from the continental US.

Two storms have already formed in October: Leslie and Milton both grew into hurricanes early in the month. There hasn’t been an active named storm in the Atlantic since October 12, the longest stretch since the weeklong break between Gordon and Helene in the third week of September.

With less than 50 days left in the hurricane season, which ends on November 30, the second half of October shows a modest trend for additional storm development. Sea surface temperatures are certainly still warm enough to build and sustain tropical systems, but the challenge lies in more variable weather patterns as we move into autumn. This means that wind shear and dry air make it harder for storms to take hold.

Check out NOAA’s tropical hazard outlook for the next two weeks below.

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.